New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Drake MayePassing22/37, 269 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Drake MayeRushing8 CAR, 54 YDS
- Hunter HenryReceiving5 REC, 62 YDS
Bills- Josh AllenPassing23/33, 253 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- James Cook IIIRushing12 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- Keon ColemanReceiving6 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:50Efton Chism III 23 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Drake Maye Pass to Rhamondre Stevenson for Two-Point Conversion)29–26
- Q44:27Keon Coleman 34 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–26
- Q411:07Tyler Bass 38 Yd Field Goal21–20
- Q38:15Romeo Doubs 2 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)21–17
- Q20:02Tyler Bass 27 Yd Field Goal14–17
- Q21:00Josh Allen 2 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)14–14
- Q25:38Rhamondre Stevenson 1 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)14–7
- Q214:15James Cook III 8 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)7–7
- Q17:01Romeo Doubs 14 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:38Rhamondre Stevenson 1 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 14 – 7 BUF · NE 31% → 53% +22NE 31% → 53%+22 pts
- Q21:00Josh Allen 2 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)NE 14 – 14 BUF · BUF 44% → 68% +24BUF 44% → 68%+24 pts
- Q38:15Romeo Doubs 2 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 21 – 17 BUF · NE 24% → 50% +26NE 24% → 50%+26 pts
- Q44:27Keon Coleman 34 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)NE 21 – 26 BUF · BUF 48% → 91% +43BUF 48% → 91%+43 pts
- Q41:50Efton Chism III 23 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Drake Maye Pass to Rhamondre Stevenson for Two-Point Conversion)NE 29 – 26 BUF · NE 3% → 83% +81NE 3% → 83%+81 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -7
- ML NE +275 / BUF -345
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -4.5
- BUF 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- BUF: Elo 65.9%, market 74.4%
- Fair odds
- BUF -282
- NE +282 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 21.3 – 28.3 BUF
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1658 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +12 | — | NE: Drake Maye · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +115 Elo | BUF 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 65.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 73.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3212.0 | Points scored | 33.71st of 32 |
| 6th of 3217.0 | Points allowed | 26.021st of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−5.0 | Margin | +7.78th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.12 | Yards per play | 6.553rd of 32 |
| 6th of 324.77 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4519th of 32 |
| 17th of 310–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 1st of 321599 | Opponent Elo | 149317th of 32 |
| 9th of 321567 | Elo rating | 16582nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  NE |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–7 | 9–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–4 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 12–9 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NE 3–3 BUF in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.