New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Drake MayePassing22/30, 273 YDS
- TreVeyon HendersonRushing6 CAR, 24 YDS
- Stefon DiggsReceiving10 REC, 146 YDS
Bills- Josh AllenPassing22/31, 253 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Josh AllenRushing9 CAR, 53 YDS
- Dalton KincaidReceiving6 REC, 108 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:15Andy Borregales 52 Yd Field Goal23–20
- Q42:17Matt Prater 45 Yd Field Goal20–20
- Q47:37Keon Coleman 2 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)20–17
- Q412:10Rhamondre Stevenson 7 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)20–10
- Q36:34Rhamondre Stevenson 4 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)13–10
- Q39:21Curtis Samuel 6 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)6–10
- Q20:00Andy Borregales 19 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q29:34Matt Prater 31 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q10:56Andy Borregales 30 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:34Rhamondre Stevenson 4 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 13 – 10 BUF · NE 19% → 44% +25NE 19% → 44%+25 pts
- Q412:10Rhamondre Stevenson 7 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 20 – 10 BUF · NE 53% → 85% +32NE 53% → 85%+32 pts
- Q47:37Keon Coleman 2 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)NE 20 – 17 BUF · BUF 7% → 40% +33BUF 7% → 40%+33 pts
- Q42:17Matt Prater 45 Yd Field GoalNE 20 – 20 BUF · BUF 21% → 56% +35BUF 21% → 56%+35 pts
- Q40:15Andy Borregales 52 Yd Field GoalNE 23 – 20 BUF · NE 48% → >99% +52NE 48% → >99%+52 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -7.5
- ML NE +320 / BUF -425
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -11.5
- BUF 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- BUF: Elo 83.6%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- BUF -351
- NE +351 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 20.5 – 28.0 BUF
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1684 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +20 | — | NE: Drake Maye · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +283 Elo | BUF 83.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 78.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 82.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 77.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3225.5 | Points scored | 33.32nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3220.3 | Points allowed | 22.518th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+5.3 | Margin | +10.83rd of 32 |
| 10th of 325.56 | Yards per play | 6.145th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.60 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2514th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
| 32nd of 321403 | Opponent Elo | 142731st of 32 |
| 24th of 321417 | Elo rating | 16842nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  NE |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–8 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 8–4 |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–5 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NE 2–2 BUF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.