Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing18/30, 150 YDS, 1 TD
- Chuba HubbardRushing10 CAR, 49 YDS
- Tetairoa McMillanReceiving4 REC, 62 YDS
Patriots- Drake MayePassing14/17, 203 YDS, 2 TD
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing9 CAR, 38 YDS
- Stefon DiggsReceiving6 REC, 101 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:56Mitchell Evans 2 Yd pass from Andy Dalton (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)13–42
- Q414:13Mack Hollins 4 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)6–42
- Q310:17Hunter Henry 31 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)6–35
- Q21:57Antonio Gibson 1 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)6–28
- Q25:48TreVeyon Henderson 5 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)6–21
- Q214:54Drake Maye 5 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)6–14
- Q15:34Marcus Jones 87 Yd Punt Return (Andy Borregales Kick)6–7
- Q110:51Tommy Tremble 7 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald PAT Failed)6–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:51Tommy Tremble 7 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald PAT Failed)CAR 6 – 0 NE · CAR 34% → 49% +15CAR 34% → 49%+15 pts
- Q15:34Marcus Jones 87 Yd Punt Return (Andy Borregales Kick)CAR 6 – 7 NE · NE 50% → 68% +18NE 50% → 68%+18 pts
- Q214:54Drake Maye 5 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)CAR 6 – 14 NE · NE 68% → 83% +16NE 68% → 83%+16 pts
- Q25:48TreVeyon Henderson 5 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)CAR 6 – 21 NE · NE 84% → 94% +10NE 84% → 94%+10 pts
- Q21:57Antonio Gibson 1 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)CAR 6 – 28 NE · NE 95% → 99% +4NE 95% → 99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Patriots 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- NE -3
- ML CAR +200 / NE -240
- Pre-line forecast
- NE 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NE -1.5
- NE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.6 pts
- NE: Elo 55.3%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- NE -203
- CAR +203 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 19.8 – 22.8 NE
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1392 | 1380 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | +17 | CAR: Bryce Young · NE: Drake Maye (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NE +37 Elo | NE 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 70.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 59.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NE 67.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3220.7 | Points scored | 20.021st of 32 |
| 7th of 3217.7 | Points allowed | 22.718th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+3.0 | Margin | −2.720th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.31 | Yards per play | 5.3515th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.67 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8327th of 32 |
| 18th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 0–222nd of 32 |
| 28th of 321444 | Opponent Elo | 142331st of 32 |
| 27th of 321392 | Elo rating | 138028th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  CAR |  NE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–8 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | — |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 12–3 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.