Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing25/34, 251 YDS, 3 TD
- Miles SandersRushing17 CAR, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- Jalen CokerReceiving7 REC, 62 YDS
Falcons- Michael Penix Jr.Passing21/38, 312 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRushing28 CAR, 170 YDS, 2 TD
- Drake LondonReceiving10 REC, 187 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- OT3:14Miles Sanders 1 Yd Rush44–38
- Q40:46Bijan Robinson 4 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)38–38
- Q44:01Bryce Young 10 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)38–31
- Q49:50Drake London 21 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Riley Patterson Kick)31–31
- Q31:02David Moore 9 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)31–24
- Q310:43Tommy Tremble 12 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)24–24
- Q20:03Drake London 20 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Riley Patterson Kick)17–24
- Q21:34Bijan Robinson 3 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)17–17
- Q22:48Miles Sanders 33 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)17–10
- Q25:27Michael Penix Jr. 5 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick) (Riley Patterson Kick)10–10
- Q210:47Bryce Young 2 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)10–3
- Q17:03Eddy Pineiro 35 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q111:08Riley Patterson 31 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:02David Moore 9 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)CAR 31 – 24 ATL · CAR 36% → 69% +33CAR 36% → 69%+33 pts
- Q49:50Drake London 21 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Riley Patterson Kick)CAR 31 – 31 ATL · ATL 21% → 61% +40ATL 21% → 61%+40 pts
- Q44:01Bryce Young 10 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)CAR 38 – 31 ATL · CAR 43% → 94% +51CAR 43% → 94%+51 pts
- Q40:46Bijan Robinson 4 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)CAR 38 – 38 ATL · ATL <1% → 53% +53ATL <1% → 53%+53 pts
- OT3:14Miles Sanders 1 Yd RushCAR 44 – 38 ATL · CAR 44% → 93% +49CAR 44% → 93%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Falcons 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -7.5
- ML CAR +300 / ATL -400
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -5
- ATL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 66.5%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -309
- CAR +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 20.5 – 28.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1281 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +2 | −66 | CAR: Bryce Young · ATL: Michael Penix Jr., usually Kirk Cousins (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +119 Elo | ATL 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 70.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 67.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 75.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3218.6 | Points scored | 21.916th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3231.0 | Points allowed | 23.720th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−12.4 | Margin | −1.820th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.00 | Yards per play | 5.7010th of 32 |
| 31st of 325.89 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4317th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 29th of 321–6 | Road vs home | 4–417th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 0–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–3 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 1–2 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.