Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Desmond RidderPassing12/20, 152 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Tyler AllgeierRushing14 CAR, 45 YDS
- Jonnu SmithReceiving2 REC, 61 YDS
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing18/24, 167 YDS
- Chuba HubbardRushing22 CAR, 87 YDS
- Adam ThielenReceiving4 REC, 43 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Eddy Pineiro 23 Yd Field Goal7–9
- Q413:32Eddy Pineiro 25 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q20:22Eddy Pineiro 34 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q24:49Cordarrelle Patterson 2 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Younghoe Koo Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:49Cordarrelle Patterson 2 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Younghoe Koo Kick)ATL 7 – 0 CAR · ATL 60% → 80% +20ATL 60% → 80%+20 pts
- Q20:22Eddy Pineiro 34 Yd Field GoalATL 7 – 3 CAR · CAR 19% → 27% +8CAR 19% → 27%+8 pts
- Q413:32Eddy Pineiro 25 Yd Field GoalATL 7 – 6 CAR · CAR 24% → 38% +14CAR 24% → 38%+14 pts
- Q40:00Eddy Pineiro 23 Yd Field GoalATL 7 – 9 CAR · CAR 0% → 100% +100CAR 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Falcons 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -5
- ATL 67%
- Fair odds
- ATL -175
- CAR +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 22.8 – 18.9 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1283 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +3 | 0 | ATL: Desmond Ridder · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +123 Elo | ATL 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 63.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3219.3 | Points scored | 15.230th of 32 |
| 12th of 3220.7 | Points allowed | 26.231st of 32 |
| 20th of 32−1.4 | Margin | −11.132nd of 32 |
| 18th of 325.15 | Yards per play | 4.0532nd of 32 |
| 11th of 325.00 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0010th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 1–932nd of 32 |
| 19th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 1–430th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–0 CAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.