Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing18/31, 194 YDS
- Chuba HubbardRushing14 CAR, 45 YDS, 1 TD
- Jonathan MingoReceiving4 REC, 60 YDS
Titans- Will LevisPassing18/28, 185 YDS
- Derrick HenryRushing18 CAR, 76 YDS, 2 TD
- DeAndre HopkinsReceiving3 REC, 49 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q38:06Chuba Hubbard 5 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick)10–17
- Q20:00Nick Folk 53 Yd Field Goal3–17
- Q22:27Derrick Henry 10 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)3–14
- Q28:51Eddy Pineiro 50 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q10:34Derrick Henry 1 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:34Derrick Henry 1 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)CAR 0 – 7 TEN · TEN 64% → 81% +17TEN 64% → 81%+17 pts
- Q28:51Eddy Pineiro 50 Yd Field GoalCAR 3 – 7 TEN · CAR 19% → 26% +7CAR 19% → 26%+7 pts
- Q22:27Derrick Henry 10 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)CAR 3 – 14 TEN · TEN 74% → 89% +15TEN 74% → 89%+15 pts
- Q20:00Nick Folk 53 Yd Field GoalCAR 3 – 17 TEN · TEN 90% → 94% +4TEN 90% → 94%+4 pts
- Q38:06Chuba Hubbard 5 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick)CAR 10 – 17 TEN · CAR 5% → 17% +12CAR 5% → 17%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Titans 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEN 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEN -5.5
- TEN 68%
- Fair odds
- TEN -196
- CAR +196 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 18.6 – 23.4 TEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1326 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | 0 | +9 | CAR: Bryce Young · TEN: Will Levis, usually Ryan Tannehill (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TEN +132 Elo | TEN 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEN 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEN 66.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3216.3 | Points scored | 16.827th of 32 |
| 31st of 3227.5 | Points allowed | 21.416th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−11.2 | Margin | −4.624th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.09 | Yards per play | 5.0620th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.03 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4125th of 32 |
| 30th of 320–5 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.