Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing16/24, 140 YDS
- Dameon PierceRushing12 CAR, 46 YDS
- Noah BrownReceiving3 REC, 57 YDS
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing22/31, 235 YDS, 1 TD
- Chuba HubbardRushing15 CAR, 28 YDS
- Adam ThielenReceiving8 REC, 72 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Eddy Pineiro 23 Yd Field Goal13–15
- Q30:35C.J. Stroud 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–12
- Q37:58Eddy Pineiro 37 Yd Field Goal7–12
- Q310:46Eddy Pineiro 46 Yd Field Goal7–9
- Q21:35Tommy Tremble 1 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro PAT failed)7–6
- Q213:13Andrew Beck 1 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q213:13Andrew Beck 1 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 7 – 0 CAR · HOU 62% → 79% +18HOU 62% → 79%+18 pts
- Q21:35Tommy Tremble 1 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro PAT failed)HOU 7 – 6 CAR · CAR 20% → 37% +17CAR 20% → 37%+17 pts
- Q37:58Eddy Pineiro 37 Yd Field GoalHOU 7 – 12 CAR · CAR 50% → 62% +12CAR 50% → 62%+12 pts
- Q30:35C.J. Stroud 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)HOU 13 – 12 CAR · HOU 33% → 62% +29HOU 33% → 62%+29 pts
- Q40:00Eddy Pineiro 23 Yd Field GoalHOU 13 – 15 CAR · CAR 0% → 100% +100CAR 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Texans 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -5
- HOU 68%
- Fair odds
- HOU -174
- CAR +174 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 24.1 – 20.2 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1367 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | 0 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +129 Elo | HOU 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 63.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3222.5 | Points scored | 18.723rd of 32 |
| 8th of 3218.8 | Points allowed | 31.031st of 32 |
| 10th of 32+3.7 | Margin | −12.331st of 32 |
| 14th of 325.29 | Yards per play | 4.3830th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.43 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6727th of 32 |
| 20th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 0–232nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.