Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- Kirk CousinsPassing12/19, 139 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Alexander MattisonRushing17 CAR, 95 YDS
- Justin JeffersonReceiving6 REC, 85 YDS, 2 TD
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing25/32, 204 YDS
- Chuba HubbardRushing14 CAR, 41 YDS
- Adam ThielenReceiving7 REC, 76 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q30:00Justin Jefferson 30 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)21–13
- Q33:58D.J. Wonnum 51 Yd Fumble Return (Greg Joseph Kick)14–13
- Q20:00Eddy Pineiro 56 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q29:43Justin Jefferson 4 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)7–10
- Q214:56Eddy Pineiro 26 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q110:27Sam Franklin Jr. 99 Yd Interception Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:27Sam Franklin Jr. 99 Yd Interception Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick)MIN 0 – 7 CAR · CAR 54% → 71% +17CAR 54% → 71%+17 pts
- Q29:43Justin Jefferson 4 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)MIN 7 – 10 CAR · MIN 20% → 38% +18MIN 20% → 38%+18 pts
- Q20:00Eddy Pineiro 56 Yd Field GoalMIN 7 – 13 CAR · CAR 63% → 73% +10CAR 63% → 73%+10 pts
- Q33:58D.J. Wonnum 51 Yd Fumble Return (Greg Joseph Kick)MIN 14 – 13 CAR · MIN 23% → 52% +29MIN 23% → 52%+29 pts
- Q30:00Justin Jefferson 30 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)MIN 21 – 13 CAR · MIN 53% → 83% +30MIN 53% → 83%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR -1
- CAR 54%
- Fair odds
- CAR -117
- MIN +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 21.8 – 22.9 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −1 | MIN: Kirk Cousins · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +25 Elo | CAR 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 54.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3223.0 | Points scored | 18.023rd of 32 |
| 26th of 3227.3 | Points allowed | 27.025th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−4.3 | Margin | −9.027th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.21 | Yards per play | 4.4227th of 32 |
| 25th of 325.54 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1114th of 32 |
| 23rd of 320–1 | Road vs home | 0–121st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.