Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- Kirk CousinsPassing31/44, 364 YDS, 4 TD
- Alexander MattisonRushing8 CAR, 28 YDS
- Justin JeffersonReceiving11 REC, 159 YDS
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing18/23, 193 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- D'Andre SwiftRushing28 CAR, 175 YDS, 1 TD
- DeVonta SmithReceiving4 REC, 131 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:10T.J. Hockenson 5 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)28–34
- Q44:13D'Andre Swift 2 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)21–34
- Q47:41K.J. Osborn 10 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)21–27
- Q39:09Jordan Addison 62 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)14–27
- Q310:54DeVonta Smith 63 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)7–27
- Q313:53Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)7–20
- Q20:00Jake Elliott 61 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q22:44Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)7–10
- Q210:39T.J. Hockenson 5 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)7–3
- Q19:48Jake Elliott 24 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:39T.J. Hockenson 5 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)MIN 7 – 3 PHI · MIN 33% → 54% +21MIN 33% → 54%+21 pts
- Q22:44Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)MIN 7 – 10 PHI · PHI 44% → 67% +23PHI 44% → 67%+23 pts
- Q20:00Jake Elliott 61 Yd Field GoalMIN 7 – 13 PHI · PHI 67% → 76% +9PHI 67% → 76%+9 pts
- Q313:53Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)MIN 7 – 20 PHI · PHI 77% → 91% +15PHI 77% → 91%+15 pts
- Q47:41K.J. Osborn 10 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)MIN 21 – 27 PHI · MIN <1% → 13% +12MIN <1% → 13%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Eagles 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -3
- PHI 61%
- Fair odds
- PHI -152
- MIN +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 20.3 – 23.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | MIN: Kirk Cousins · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +81 Elo | PHI 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3217.0 | Points scored | 25.08th of 32 |
| 14th of 3220.0 | Points allowed | 20.014th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−3.0 | Margin | +5.010th of 32 |
| 3rd of 325.86 | Yards per play | 4.1122nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 323.56 | Yards allowed per play | 4.9021st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Vikings: last 1