Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing22/33, 170 YDS, 1 TD
- Kenny GainwellRushing14 CAR, 54 YDS
- A.J. BrownReceiving7 REC, 79 YDS
Patriots- Mac JonesPassing35/54, 316 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Ezekiel ElliottRushing7 CAR, 29 YDS
- Kendrick BourneReceiving6 REC, 64 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:37Kendrick Bourne 11 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)25–20
- Q45:33Jake Elliott 51 Yd Field Goal25–14
- Q413:21Jake Elliott 48 Yd Field Goal22–14
- Q38:48Jake Elliott 56 Yd Field Goal19–14
- Q20:25Kendrick Bourne 19 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Chad Ryland Kick)16–14
- Q24:34Hunter Henry 9 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Chad Ryland Kick)16–7
- Q12:39DeVonta Smith 5 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott PAT failed)16–0
- Q14:56Darius Slay 70 Yd Interception Return (Jake Elliott Kick)10–0
- Q17:42Jake Elliott 32 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:56Darius Slay 70 Yd Interception Return (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 10 – 0 NE · PHI 54% → 72% +18PHI 54% → 72%+18 pts
- Q12:39DeVonta Smith 5 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott PAT failed)PHI 16 – 0 NE · PHI 72% → 84% +12PHI 72% → 84%+12 pts
- Q24:34Hunter Henry 9 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Chad Ryland Kick)PHI 16 – 7 NE · NE 11% → 26% +15NE 11% → 26%+15 pts
- Q20:25Kendrick Bourne 19 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Chad Ryland Kick)PHI 16 – 14 NE · NE 24% → 47% +23NE 24% → 47%+23 pts
- Q413:21Jake Elliott 48 Yd Field GoalPHI 22 – 14 NE · PHI 73% → 84% +12PHI 73% → 84%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Patriots 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NE -1.5
- NE 55%
- Fair odds
- NE -123
- PHI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 21.1 – 22.5 NE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | PHI: Jalen Hurts · NE: Mac Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NE +36 Elo | NE 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 55.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.