Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing21/34, 173 YDS, 2 TD
- Rachaad WhiteRushing17 CAR, 39 YDS
- Mike EvansReceiving6 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD
Vikings- Kirk CousinsPassing33/44, 344 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Alexander MattisonRushing11 CAR, 34 YDS
- Justin JeffersonReceiving9 REC, 150 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:10Chase McLaughlin 57 Yd Field Goal20–17
- Q413:37Alexander Mattison 4 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)17–17
- Q36:01Trey Palmer 7 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)17–10
- Q21:09Mike Evans 28 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)10–10
- Q25:41Greg Joseph 25 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q211:15Jordan Addison 39 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)3–7
- Q13:23Chase McLaughlin 36 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:15Jordan Addison 39 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)TB 3 – 7 MIN · MIN 45% → 66% +21MIN 45% → 66%+21 pts
- Q21:09Mike Evans 28 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 10 – 10 MIN · TB 24% → 46% +22TB 24% → 46%+22 pts
- Q36:01Trey Palmer 7 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 17 – 10 MIN · TB 47% → 75% +28TB 47% → 75%+28 pts
- Q413:37Alexander Mattison 4 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)TB 17 – 17 MIN · MIN 19% → 52% +33MIN 19% → 52%+33 pts
- Q45:10Chase McLaughlin 57 Yd Field GoalTB 20 – 17 MIN · TB 48% → 73% +24TB 48% → 73%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Vikings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -1.5
- MIN 55%
- Fair odds
- MIN -123
- TB +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 21.1 – 22.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | TB: Baker Mayfield · MIN: Kirk Cousins (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +36 Elo | MIN 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.