Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Andy DaltonPassing34/58, 361 YDS, 2 TD
- Miles SandersRushing9 CAR, 24 YDS, 1 TD
- Adam ThielenReceiving11 REC, 145 YDS, 1 TD
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing23/36, 296 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing18 CAR, 97 YDS, 2 TD
- DK MetcalfReceiving6 REC, 112 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:40Adam Thielen 15 Yd pass from Andy Dalton (Eddy Pineiro Kick)27–37
- Q44:17Jake Bobo 5 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Geno Smith Pass to Tyler Lockett for Two-Point Conversion)20–37
- Q411:40Kenneth Walker III 7 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)20–29
- Q414:55Miles Sanders 1 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick)20–22
- Q33:52Kenneth Walker III 1 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)13–22
- Q39:45Jason Myers 39 Yd Field Goal13–15
- Q20:44Jason Myers 37 Yd Field Goal13–12
- Q22:39Eddy Pineiro 44 Yd Field Goal13–9
- Q24:54DJ Chark Jr. 47 Yd pass from Andy Dalton (Eddy Pineiro Kick)10–9
- Q28:45Jason Myers 33 Yd Field Goal3–9
- Q212:07Jason Myers 35 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q13:33Jason Myers 43 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q17:47Eddy Pineiro 47 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:54DJ Chark Jr. 47 Yd pass from Andy Dalton (Eddy Pineiro Kick)CAR 10 – 9 SEA · CAR 25% → 46% +21CAR 25% → 46%+21 pts
- Q39:45Jason Myers 39 Yd Field GoalCAR 13 – 15 SEA · SEA 52% → 64% +11SEA 52% → 64%+11 pts
- Q33:52Kenneth Walker III 1 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)CAR 13 – 22 SEA · SEA 64% → 87% +23SEA 64% → 87%+23 pts
- Q414:55Miles Sanders 1 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick)CAR 20 – 22 SEA · CAR 10% → 35% +25CAR 10% → 35%+25 pts
- Q411:40Kenneth Walker III 7 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)CAR 20 – 29 SEA · SEA 65% → 92% +27SEA 65% → 92%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Seahawks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -3
- SEA 60%
- Fair odds
- SEA -148
- CAR +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 20.7 – 23.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | 0 | — | CAR: Andy Dalton, usually Bryce Young · SEA: Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +74 Elo | SEA 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 59.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3213.5 | Points scored | 25.09th of 32 |
| 15th of 3222.0 | Points allowed | 30.529th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−8.5 | Margin | −5.521st of 32 |
| 31st of 324.06 | Yards per play | 5.0712th of 32 |
| 7th of 324.61 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9429th of 32 |
| 22nd of 310–1 | Road vs home | 0–117th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Panthers: last 2