New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Derek CarrPassing21/36, 228 YDS, 1 INT
- Taysom HillRushing9 CAR, 75 YDS
- Chris OlaveReceiving6 REC, 86 YDS
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing22/33, 153 YDS, 1 TD
- Miles SandersRushing14 CAR, 43 YDS
- Adam ThielenReceiving7 REC, 54 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:16Adam Thielen 3 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Bryce Young Pass to Adam Thielen for Two-Point Conversion)20–17
- Q43:14Tony Jones Jr. 2 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)20–9
- Q45:30Eddy Pineiro 36 Yd Field Goal13–9
- Q32:56Tony Jones Jr. 2 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)13–6
- Q39:10Eddy Pineiro 54 Yd Field Goal6–6
- Q29:52Blake Grupe 23 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q10:36Blake Grupe 28 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q17:04Eddy Pineiro 52 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:10Eddy Pineiro 54 Yd Field GoalNO 6 – 6 CAR · CAR 39% → 50% +12CAR 39% → 50%+12 pts
- Q32:56Tony Jones Jr. 2 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 13 – 6 CAR · NO 50% → 79% +29NO 50% → 79%+29 pts
- Q45:30Eddy Pineiro 36 Yd Field GoalNO 13 – 9 CAR · CAR 7% → 20% +13CAR 7% → 20%+13 pts
- Q43:14Tony Jones Jr. 2 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 20 – 9 CAR · NO 86% → >99% +14NO 86% → >99%+14 pts
- Q41:16Adam Thielen 3 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Bryce Young Pass to Adam Thielen for Two-Point Conversion)NO 20 – 17 CAR · CAR <1% → 10% +10CAR <1% → 10%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- CAR 50%
- Fair odds
- CAR -103
- NO +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 21.5 – 21.7 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | NO: Derek Carr · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +2 Elo | NO 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 50.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3216.0 | Points scored | 10.031st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3215.0 | Points allowed | 24.015th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+1.0 | Margin | −14.029th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.48 | Yards per play | 3.9031st of 32 |
| 10th of 324.83 | Yards allowed per play | 4.606th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Saints: last 1