Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing40/47, 405 YDS, 3 TD
- Joshua KelleyRushing11 CAR, 12 YDS
- Keenan AllenReceiving18 REC, 215 YDS
Vikings- Kirk CousinsPassing32/50, 367 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Alexander MattisonRushing20 CAR, 93 YDS
- Justin JeffersonReceiving7 REC, 149 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q48:05Joshua Palmer 30 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)28–24
- Q411:20Justin Jefferson 52 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)21–24
- Q33:01K.J. Osborn 36 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)21–17
- Q35:53Mike Williams 49 Yd pass from Keenan Allen (Cameron Dicker Kick)21–10
- Q20:47Donald Parham Jr. 1 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)14–10
- Q22:08Greg Joseph 23 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q27:27Josh Oliver 4 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)7–7
- Q12:51Donald Parham Jr. 3 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q20:47Donald Parham Jr. 1 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 14 – 10 MIN · LAC 37% → 61% +24LAC 37% → 61%+24 pts
- Q35:53Mike Williams 49 Yd pass from Keenan Allen (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 21 – 10 MIN · LAC 64% → 87% +22LAC 64% → 87%+22 pts
- Q33:01K.J. Osborn 36 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)LAC 21 – 17 MIN · MIN 11% → 35% +23MIN 11% → 35%+23 pts
- Q411:20Justin Jefferson 52 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)LAC 21 – 24 MIN · MIN 30% → 69% +39MIN 30% → 69%+39 pts
- Q48:05Joshua Palmer 30 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 28 – 24 MIN · LAC 29% → 74% +45LAC 29% → 74%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Vikings 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -1
- MIN 54%
- Fair odds
- MIN -119
- LAC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 22.0 – 23.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | LAC: Justin Herbert · MIN: Kirk Cousins (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +29 Elo | MIN 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3229.0 | Points scored | 22.518th of 32 |
| 30th of 3231.5 | Points allowed | 27.025th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−2.5 | Margin | −4.522nd of 32 |
| 6th of 325.50 | Yards per play | 6.302nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.85 | Yards allowed per play | 4.709th of 32 |
| 18th of 280–1 | Road vs home | 0–114th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Chargers: last 2