Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing20/35, 249 YDS, 1 TD
- Dameon PierceRushing20 CAR, 66 YDS
- Dalton SchultzReceiving7 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD
Falcons- Desmond RidderPassing28/37, 329 YDS, 1 TD
- Bijan RobinsonRushing14 CAR, 46 YDS
- Kyle Pitts Sr.Receiving7 REC, 87 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Younghoe Koo 37 Yd Field Goal19–21
- Q41:49Dalton Schultz 18 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)19–18
- Q46:57Younghoe Koo 33 Yd Field Goal12–18
- Q412:12Bijan Robinson 6 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Desmond Ridder Pass to Tyler Allgeier for Two-Point Conversion)12–15
- Q39:35Ka'imi Fairbairn 42 Yd Field Goal12–7
- Q20:03Ka'imi Fairbairn 28 Yd Field Goal9–7
- Q214:10Ka'imi Fairbairn 43 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q16:48Desmond Ridder 7 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)3–7
- Q110:38Ka'imi Fairbairn 38 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:48Desmond Ridder 7 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)HOU 3 – 7 ATL · ATL 40% → 59% +19ATL 40% → 59%+19 pts
- Q412:12Bijan Robinson 6 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Desmond Ridder Pass to Tyler Allgeier for Two-Point Conversion)HOU 12 – 15 ATL · ATL 24% → 66% +42ATL 24% → 66%+42 pts
- Q46:57Younghoe Koo 33 Yd Field GoalHOU 12 – 18 ATL · ATL 71% → 86% +16ATL 71% → 86%+16 pts
- Q41:49Dalton Schultz 18 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 19 – 18 ATL · HOU 2% → 64% +63HOU 2% → 64%+63 pts
- Q40:00Younghoe Koo 37 Yd Field GoalHOU 19 – 21 ATL · ATL 0% → 100% +100ATL 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Texans 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1
- HOU 54%
- Fair odds
- HOU -107
- ATL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 21.7 – 21.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | HOU: C.J. Stroud · ATL: Desmond Ridder (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +27 Elo | HOU 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3224.0 | Points scored | 15.525th of 32 |
| 11th of 3219.8 | Points allowed | 19.310th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+4.3 | Margin | −3.822nd of 32 |
| 14th of 325.34 | Yards per play | 4.5826th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.22 | Yards allowed per play | 4.715th of 32 |
| 12th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.