Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Kenny PickettPassing15/23, 114 YDS, 1 INT
- Najee HarrisRushing14 CAR, 71 YDS
- Najee HarrisReceiving1 REC, 32 YDS
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing16/30, 306 YDS, 2 TD
- Dameon PierceRushing24 CAR, 81 YDS
- Nico CollinsReceiving7 REC, 168 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:39Nico Collins 52 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)6–30
- Q410:50Dalton Schultz 6 Yd pass from Devin Singletary (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)6–23
- Q35:47Chris Boswell 23 Yd Field Goal6–16
- Q39:31Chris Boswell 35 Yd Field Goal3–16
- Q20:00Ka'imi Fairbairn 39 Yd Field Goal0–16
- Q212:09Ka'imi Fairbairn 38 Yd Field Goal0–13
- Q11:20Ka'imi Fairbairn 36 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q18:55Nico Collins 2 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:55Nico Collins 2 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)PIT 0 – 7 HOU · HOU 53% → 70% +18HOU 53% → 70%+18 pts
- Q11:20Ka'imi Fairbairn 36 Yd Field GoalPIT 0 – 10 HOU · HOU 71% → 78% +7HOU 71% → 78%+7 pts
- Q212:09Ka'imi Fairbairn 38 Yd Field GoalPIT 0 – 13 HOU · HOU 79% → 85% +6HOU 79% → 85%+6 pts
- Q35:47Chris Boswell 23 Yd Field GoalPIT 6 – 16 HOU · PIT 8% → 13% +6PIT 8% → 13%+6 pts
- Q410:50Dalton Schultz 6 Yd pass from Devin Singletary (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)PIT 6 – 23 HOU · HOU 93% → >99% +6HOU 93% → >99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Texans 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -0.5
- HOU 53%
- Fair odds
- HOU -112
- PIT +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 21.7 – 22.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | PIT: Kenny Pickett · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +18 Elo | HOU 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3218.7 | Points scored | 22.018th of 32 |
| 19th of 3223.3 | Points allowed | 24.323rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−4.7 | Margin | −2.319th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324.75 | Yards per play | 4.9418th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.43 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5826th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 0–121st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.