Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Kenny PickettPassing16/28, 235 YDS, 2 TD
- Najee HarrisRushing19 CAR, 65 YDS
- George PickensReceiving4 REC, 75 YDS
Raiders- Jimmy GaroppoloPassing28/44, 324 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- Josh JacobsRushing17 CAR, 62 YDS
- Davante AdamsReceiving13 REC, 172 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:22Daniel Carlson 26 Yd Field Goal23–18
- Q45:41Davante Adams 1 Yd pass from Jimmy Garoppolo (Jimmy Garoppolo Pass to Michael Mayer for Two-Point Conversion)23–15
- Q33:56Pat Freiermuth 13 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Chris Boswell Kick)23–7
- Q39:28Chris Boswell 57 Yd Field Goal16–7
- Q21:56Chris Boswell 42 Yd Field Goal13–7
- Q28:33Chris Boswell 43 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q16:12Calvin Austin III 72 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Chris Boswell Kick)7–7
- Q17:04Davante Adams 32 Yd pass from Jimmy Garoppolo (Daniel Carlson Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:04Davante Adams 32 Yd pass from Jimmy Garoppolo (Daniel Carlson Kick)PIT 0 – 7 LV · LV 54% → 72% +18LV 54% → 72%+18 pts
- Q16:12Calvin Austin III 72 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 7 – 7 LV · PIT 28% → 46% +18PIT 28% → 46%+18 pts
- Q21:56Chris Boswell 42 Yd Field GoalPIT 13 – 7 LV · PIT 57% → 67% +10PIT 57% → 67%+10 pts
- Q39:28Chris Boswell 57 Yd Field GoalPIT 16 – 7 LV · PIT 70% → 79% +9PIT 70% → 79%+9 pts
- Q33:56Pat Freiermuth 13 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 23 – 7 LV · PIT 83% → 96% +13PIT 83% → 96%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raiders 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LV 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LV -1
- LV 54%
- Fair odds
- LV -118
- PIT +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 21.3 – 22.5 LV
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | PIT: Kenny Pickett · LV: Jimmy Garoppolo (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LV +26 Elo | LV 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LV 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LV 54.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3216.5 | Points scored | 13.531st of 32 |
| 23rd of 3226.0 | Points allowed | 27.024th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−9.5 | Margin | −13.529th of 32 |
| 28th of 324.33 | Yards per play | 5.3311th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.44 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3820th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Steelers: last 2