Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Deshaun WatsonPassing22/40, 235 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jerome FordRushing16 CAR, 106 YDS
- Amari CooperReceiving7 REC, 90 YDS
Steelers- Kenny PickettPassing15/30, 222 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Najee HarrisRushing10 CAR, 43 YDS
- George PickensReceiving4 REC, 127 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q46:58T.J. Watt 16 Yd Fumble Return (Chris Boswell Kick)22–26
- Q310:01Pierre Strong Jr. 1 Yd Run (Deshaun Watson Run for Two-Point Conversion)22–19
- Q311:47Chris Boswell 50 Yd Field Goal14–19
- Q20:22Dustin Hopkins 55 Yd Field Goal14–16
- Q26:05George Pickens 71 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)11–16
- Q29:11Chris Boswell 52 Yd Field Goal11–10
- Q214:02Jerome Ford 3 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Jerome Ford Run for Two-Point Conversion)11–7
- Q18:46Dustin Hopkins 43 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q114:51Alex Highsmith 30 Yd Interception Return (Chris Boswell Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q114:51Alex Highsmith 30 Yd Interception Return (Chris Boswell Kick)CLE 0 – 7 PIT · PIT 46% → 64% +17PIT 46% → 64%+17 pts
- Q214:02Jerome Ford 3 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Jerome Ford Run for Two-Point Conversion)CLE 11 – 7 PIT · CLE 42% → 65% +23CLE 42% → 65%+23 pts
- Q26:05George Pickens 71 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)CLE 11 – 16 PIT · PIT 44% → 63% +19PIT 44% → 63%+19 pts
- Q310:01Pierre Strong Jr. 1 Yd Run (Deshaun Watson Run for Two-Point Conversion)CLE 22 – 19 PIT · CLE 33% → 64% +30CLE 33% → 64%+30 pts
- Q46:58T.J. Watt 16 Yd Fumble Return (Chris Boswell Kick)CLE 22 – 26 PIT · PIT 28% → 76% +48PIT 28% → 76%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Browns 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -1.5
- CLE 56%
- Fair odds
- CLE -116
- PIT +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 22.2 – 21.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | CLE: Deshaun Watson · PIT: Kenny Pickett (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +43 Elo | CLE 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3224.0 | Points scored | 7.032nd of 32 |
| 1st of 323.0 | Points allowed | 30.028th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+21.0 | Margin | −23.032nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 324.86 | Yards per play | 3.9231st of 32 |
| 1st of 322.63 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9229th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Browns: last 1