Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing25/41, 247 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Chuba HubbardRushing9 CAR, 35 YDS
- Adam ThielenReceiving11 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD
Lions- Jared GoffPassing20/28, 236 YDS, 3 TD
- David MontgomeryRushing19 CAR, 109 YDS, 1 TD
- Josh ReynoldsReceiving4 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:55Adam Thielen 1 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)24–42
- Q47:27Craig Reynolds 5 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)17–42
- Q411:52DJ Chark Jr. 18 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)17–35
- Q414:58Jared Goff 1 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)10–35
- Q20:06Eddy Pineiro 33 Yd Field Goal10–28
- Q23:21Sam LaPorta 31 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)7–28
- Q23:50Josh Reynolds 1 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)7–21
- Q212:48Tommy Tremble 1 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)7–14
- Q14:53Sam LaPorta 4 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)0–14
- Q19:41David Montgomery 42 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:41David Montgomery 42 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)CAR 0 – 7 DET · DET 71% → 84% +14DET 71% → 84%+14 pts
- Q14:53Sam LaPorta 4 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)CAR 0 – 14 DET · DET 84% → 93% +9DET 84% → 93%+9 pts
- Q212:48Tommy Tremble 1 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)CAR 7 – 14 DET · CAR 6% → 16% +9CAR 6% → 16%+9 pts
- Q23:50Josh Reynolds 1 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)CAR 7 – 21 DET · DET 85% → 95% +10DET 85% → 95%+10 pts
- Q23:21Sam LaPorta 31 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)CAR 7 – 28 DET · DET 95% → 99% +4DET 95% → 99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lions 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -7.5
- DET 75%
- Fair odds
- DET -255
- CAR +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 18.7 – 25.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1400 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −1 | — | CAR: Bryce Young · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +192 Elo | DET 75.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 71.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3216.8 | Points scored | 26.58th of 32 |
| 25th of 3225.5 | Points allowed | 20.813th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−8.8 | Margin | +5.88th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.17 | Yards per play | 5.708th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.28 | Yards allowed per play | 4.544th of 32 |
| 26th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 1–19th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.