Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing19/28, 210 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- David MontgomeryRushing32 CAR, 121 YDS, 3 TD
- Josh ReynoldsReceiving3 REC, 69 YDS
Packers- Jordan LovePassing23/36, 246 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing5 CAR, 18 YDS
- Romeo DoubsReceiving9 REC, 95 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:52Anders Carlson 50 Yd Field Goal34–20
- Q46:00David Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)34–17
- Q414:52Jordan Love 9 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)27–17
- Q38:17Christian Watson 1 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Jordan Love Pass to Jayden Reed for Two-Point Conversion)27–11
- Q20:34Riley Patterson 37 Yd Field Goal27–3
- Q213:19David Montgomery 2 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)24–3
- Q214:07Riley Patterson 33 Yd Field Goal17–3
- Q12:54David Montgomery 3 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)14–3
- Q18:16Amon-Ra St. Brown 24 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)7–3
- Q111:59Anders Carlson 34 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:59Anders Carlson 34 Yd Field GoalDET 0 – 3 GB · GB 58% → 65% +7GB 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q18:16Amon-Ra St. Brown 24 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)DET 7 – 3 GB · DET 35% → 53% +18DET 35% → 53%+18 pts
- Q12:54David Montgomery 3 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)DET 14 – 3 GB · DET 54% → 72% +18DET 54% → 72%+18 pts
- Q213:19David Montgomery 2 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)DET 24 – 3 GB · DET 81% → 92% +11DET 81% → 92%+11 pts
- Q414:52Jordan Love 9 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)DET 27 – 17 GB · GB 3% → 12% +9GB 3% → 12%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Packers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -2.5
- GB 59%
- Fair odds
- GB -138
- DET +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 21.0 – 23.3 GB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | DET: Jared Goff · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +62 Elo | GB 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 58.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3224.0 | Points scored | 26.78th of 32 |
| 15th of 3221.0 | Points allowed | 20.713th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+3.0 | Margin | +6.08th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.78 | Yards per play | 5.0216th of 32 |
| 6th of 324.60 | Yards allowed per play | 4.8511th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.