New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Derek CarrPassing13/18, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- Kendre MillerRushing9 CAR, 34 YDS
- Chris OlaveReceiving8 REC, 104 YDS
Packers- Jordan LovePassing22/44, 259 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jordan LoveRushing9 CAR, 39 YDS, 1 TD
- Romeo DoubsReceiving5 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:56Romeo Doubs 8 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)17–18
- Q46:58Jordan Love 1 Yd Run (Jordan Love Pass to Samori Toure for Two-Point Conversion)17–11
- Q411:00Anders Carlson 38 Yd Field Goal17–3
- Q20:06Blake Grupe 25 Yd Field Goal17–0
- Q210:30Rashid Shaheed 76 Yd Punt Return (Blake Grupe Kick)14–0
- Q16:40Jimmy Graham 8 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:40Jimmy Graham 8 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 7 – 0 GB · NO 45% → 63% +19NO 45% → 63%+19 pts
- Q210:30Rashid Shaheed 76 Yd Punt Return (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 14 – 0 GB · NO 66% → 83% +17NO 66% → 83%+17 pts
- Q20:06Blake Grupe 25 Yd Field GoalNO 17 – 0 GB · NO 87% → 92% +5NO 87% → 92%+5 pts
- Q46:58Jordan Love 1 Yd Run (Jordan Love Pass to Samori Toure for Two-Point Conversion)NO 17 – 11 GB · GB <1% → 14% +14GB <1% → 14%+14 pts
- Q42:56Romeo Doubs 8 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)NO 17 – 18 GB · GB 5% → 62% +58GB 5% → 62%+58 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Packers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -2
- GB 56%
- Fair odds
- GB -126
- NO +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 21.1 – 22.7 GB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | NO: Derek Carr · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +44 Elo | GB 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 55.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3218.0 | Points scored | 31.02nd of 32 |
| 5th of 3216.0 | Points allowed | 22.514th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+2.0 | Margin | +8.55th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.01 | Yards per play | 5.1713th of 32 |
| 6th of 324.56 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1115th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Saints: last 2