Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing23/38, 217 YDS, 1 TD
- Chuba HubbardRushing19 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- Adam ThielenReceiving11 REC, 115 YDS, 1 TD
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing21/31, 262 YDS, 3 TD
- Raheem MostertRushing17 CAR, 115 YDS, 2 TD
- Tyreek HillReceiving6 REC, 163 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:31Salvon Ahmed 9 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)21–42
- Q44:26Troy Hill 61 Yd Interception Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick)21–35
- Q412:23Raheem Mostert 1 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)14–35
- Q36:21Raheem Mostert 4 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)14–28
- Q21:54Tyreek Hill 41 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)14–21
- Q27:00Jaylen Waddle 4 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)14–14
- Q211:13Raheem Mostert 3 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)14–7
- Q10:06Adam Thielen 8 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)14–0
- Q17:13Chuba Hubbard 6 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:13Chuba Hubbard 6 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick)CAR 7 – 0 MIA · CAR 28% → 45% +18CAR 28% → 45%+18 pts
- Q10:06Adam Thielen 8 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)CAR 14 – 0 MIA · CAR 49% → 68% +20CAR 49% → 68%+20 pts
- Q211:13Raheem Mostert 3 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)CAR 14 – 7 MIA · MIA 29% → 50% +20MIA 29% → 50%+20 pts
- Q27:00Jaylen Waddle 4 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)CAR 14 – 14 MIA · MIA 47% → 69% +22MIA 47% → 69%+22 pts
- Q21:54Tyreek Hill 41 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)CAR 14 – 21 MIA · MIA 68% → 86% +18MIA 68% → 86%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dolphins 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -8.5
- MIA 77%
- Fair odds
- MIA -278
- CAR +278 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 19.8 – 27.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1383 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | 0 | — | CAR: Bryce Young · MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +208 Elo | MIA 76.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 73.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3218.2 | Points scored | 36.21st of 32 |
| 28th of 3228.8 | Points allowed | 27.026th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−10.6 | Margin | +9.25th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.38 | Yards per play | 8.311st of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.48 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3518th of 32 |
| 28th of 320–3 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.