New York Giants at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Daniel JonesPassing14/20, 119 YDS
- Eric GrayRushing12 CAR, 25 YDS
- Darren WallerReceiving8 REC, 86 YDS
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing22/30, 308 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- De'Von AchaneRushing11 CAR, 151 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyreek HillReceiving8 REC, 181 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q48:51Graham Gano 51 Yd Field Goal16–31
- Q30:00Raheem Mostert 2 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)13–31
- Q34:26Graham Gano 37 Yd Field Goal13–24
- Q314:06Tyreek Hill 69 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)10–24
- Q20:00Jason Sanders 40 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q21:40Jason Pinnock 102 Yd Interception Return (Graham Gano Kick)10–14
- Q23:41Graham Gano 49 Yd Field Goal3–14
- Q210:02De'Von Achane 76 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)0–14
- Q17:09Jaylen Waddle 2 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:09Jaylen Waddle 2 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)NYG 0 – 7 MIA · MIA 67% → 82% +15MIA 67% → 82%+15 pts
- Q210:02De'Von Achane 76 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)NYG 0 – 14 MIA · MIA 82% → 93% +10MIA 82% → 93%+10 pts
- Q21:40Jason Pinnock 102 Yd Interception Return (Graham Gano Kick)NYG 10 – 14 MIA · NYG 10% → 24% +15NYG 10% → 24%+15 pts
- Q20:00Jason Sanders 40 Yd Field GoalNYG 10 – 17 MIA · MIA 76% → 83% +8MIA 76% → 83%+8 pts
- Q314:06Tyreek Hill 69 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)NYG 10 – 24 MIA · MIA 83% → 95% +11MIA 83% → 95%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dolphins 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -6.5
- MIA 72%
- Fair odds
- MIA -218
- NYG +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 20.5 – 26.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | NYG: Daniel Jones · MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +160 Elo | MIA 71.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 68.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3211.5 | Points scored | 37.51st of 32 |
| 29th of 3230.5 | Points allowed | 29.828th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−19.0 | Margin | +7.86th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.00 | Yards per play | 8.021st of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.60 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7225th of 32 |
| 12th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.