Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing13/20, 110 YDS, 1 TD
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing17 CAR, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- Noah FantReceiving2 REC, 63 YDS
Giants- Daniel JonesPassing27/34, 203 YDS, 2 INT
- Daniel JonesRushing10 CAR, 66 YDS
- Matt BreidaReceiving5 REC, 48 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:26Jason Myers 34 Yd Field Goal24–3
- Q31:03Devon Witherspoon 97 Yd Interception Return (Jason Myers Kick)21–3
- Q21:39Kenneth Walker III 1 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)14–3
- Q23:05Graham Gano 55 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q10:00DK Metcalf 6 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:00DK Metcalf 6 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 7 – 0 NYG · SEA 52% → 71% +19SEA 52% → 71%+19 pts
- Q23:05Graham Gano 55 Yd Field GoalSEA 7 – 3 NYG · NYG 26% → 35% +9NYG 26% → 35%+9 pts
- Q21:39Kenneth Walker III 1 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 14 – 3 NYG · SEA 65% → 84% +19SEA 65% → 84%+19 pts
- Q31:03Devon Witherspoon 97 Yd Interception Return (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 21 – 3 NYG · SEA 91% → 99% +7SEA 91% → 99%+7 pts
- Q45:26Jason Myers 34 Yd Field GoalSEA 24 – 3 NYG · SEA >99% → >99% +0SEA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Seahawks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -1
- SEA 54%
- Fair odds
- SEA -110
- NYG +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 23.1 – 22.5 NYG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | SEA: Geno Smith · NYG: Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +30 Elo | SEA 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYG 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3229.0 | Points scored | 14.330th of 32 |
| 27th of 3229.3 | Points allowed | 32.730th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −18.332nd of 32 |
| 12th of 325.42 | Yards per play | 4.2730th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.63 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6223rd of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 0–123rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.