New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Daniel JonesPassing22/32, 137 YDS, 1 INT
- Matt BreidaRushing4 CAR, 17 YDS, 1 TD
- Darius SlaytonReceiving3 REC, 32 YDS
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing25/37, 310 YDS, 2 TD
- Christian McCaffreyRushing18 CAR, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- Deebo Samuel Sr.Receiving6 REC, 129 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q45:58Deebo Samuel 27 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)12–30
- Q412:47Jake Moody 36 Yd Field Goal12–23
- Q34:08Jake Moody 21 Yd Field Goal12–20
- Q310:00Matt Breida 8 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–17
- Q20:13Graham Gano 57 Yd Field Goal6–17
- Q21:40Christian McCaffrey 4 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)3–17
- Q27:49Ronnie Bell 9 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)3–10
- Q13:18Graham Gano 44 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q18:44Jake Moody 28 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:18Graham Gano 44 Yd Field GoalNYG 3 – 3 SF · NYG 28% → 35% +7NYG 28% → 35%+7 pts
- Q27:49Ronnie Bell 9 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)NYG 3 – 10 SF · SF 63% → 81% +18SF 63% → 81%+18 pts
- Q21:40Christian McCaffrey 4 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)NYG 3 – 17 SF · SF 82% → 94% +12SF 82% → 94%+12 pts
- Q310:00Matt Breida 8 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)NYG 12 – 17 SF · NYG 9% → 22% +13NYG 9% → 22%+13 pts
- Q34:08Jake Moody 21 Yd Field GoalNYG 12 – 20 SF · SF 79% → 87% +8SF 79% → 87%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
49ers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -5.5
- SF 69%
- Fair odds
- SF -197
- NYG +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 19.8 – 24.6 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | NYG: Daniel Jones · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +140 Elo | SF 69.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 66.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3215.5 | Points scored | 30.03rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3234.0 | Points allowed | 15.03rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−18.5 | Margin | +15.02nd of 32 |
| 25th of 324.62 | Yards per play | 6.302nd of 32 |
| 27th of 325.60 | Yards allowed per play | 4.505th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Giants: last 2