Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing13/24, 143 YDS
- Tony PollardRushing14 CAR, 70 YDS, 2 TD
- CeeDee LambReceiving4 REC, 77 YDS
Giants- Daniel JonesPassing15/28, 104 YDS, 2 INT
- Saquon BarkleyRushing12 CAR, 51 YDS
- Darren WallerReceiving3 REC, 36 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q411:31KaVontae Turpin 7 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)40–0
- Q310:01Tony Pollard 1 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)33–0
- Q28:03Tony Pollard 2 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)26–0
- Q210:55Brandon Aubrey 38 Yd Field Goal19–0
- Q12:22DaRon Bland 22 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Aubrey Kick)16–0
- Q13:21Brandon Aubrey 21 Yd Field Goal9–0
- Q18:03Noah Igbinoghene 58 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Brandon Aubrey PAT failed)6–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:03Noah Igbinoghene 58 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Brandon Aubrey PAT failed)DAL 6 – 0 NYG · DAL 45% → 61% +16DAL 45% → 61%+16 pts
- Q13:21Brandon Aubrey 21 Yd Field GoalDAL 9 – 0 NYG · DAL 62% → 70% +8DAL 62% → 70%+8 pts
- Q12:22DaRon Bland 22 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 16 – 0 NYG · DAL 70% → 85% +15DAL 70% → 85%+15 pts
- Q210:55Brandon Aubrey 38 Yd Field GoalDAL 19 – 0 NYG · DAL 87% → 91% +4DAL 87% → 91%+4 pts
- Q28:03Tony Pollard 2 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 26 – 0 NYG · DAL 92% → 97% +6DAL 92% → 97%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYG -1.5
- NYG 55%
- Fair odds
- NYG -123
- DAL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 21.1 – 22.6 NYG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | DAL: Dak Prescott · NYG: Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NYG +36 Elo | NYG 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYG 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYG 55.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.