New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Daniel JonesPassing26/37, 321 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Saquon BarkleyRushing17 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- Jalin HyattReceiving2 REC, 89 YDS
Cardinals- Joshua DobbsPassing21/31, 228 YDS, 1 TD
- James ConnerRushing23 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
- Zach ErtzReceiving6 REC, 56 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:19Graham Gano 34 Yd Field Goal31–28
- Q44:25Isaiah Hodgins 11 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Graham Gano Kick)28–28
- Q48:51Saquon Barkley 9 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Graham Gano Kick)21–28
- Q33:27Saquon Barkley 1 Yd Run (Graham Gano Kick)14–28
- Q39:34Marquise Brown 3 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Joshua Dobbs Run for Two-Point Conversion)7–28
- Q313:43Daniel Jones 14 Yd Run (Graham Gano Kick)7–20
- Q21:09Matt Prater 44 Yd Field Goal0–20
- Q28:43Matt Prater 37 Yd Field Goal0–17
- Q214:51Joshua Dobbs 23 Yd Run (Matt Prater Kick)0–14
- Q16:11James Conner 4 Yd Run (Matt Prater Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:11James Conner 4 Yd Run (Matt Prater Kick)NYG 0 – 7 ARI · ARI 58% → 75% +17ARI 58% → 75%+17 pts
- Q214:51Joshua Dobbs 23 Yd Run (Matt Prater Kick)NYG 0 – 14 ARI · ARI 76% → 89% +13ARI 76% → 89%+13 pts
- Q48:51Saquon Barkley 9 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Graham Gano Kick)NYG 21 – 28 ARI · NYG <1% → 11% +10NYG <1% → 11%+10 pts
- Q44:25Isaiah Hodgins 11 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Graham Gano Kick)NYG 28 – 28 ARI · NYG 5% → 48% +43NYG 5% → 48%+43 pts
- Q40:19Graham Gano 34 Yd Field GoalNYG 31 – 28 ARI · NYG 49% → >99% +50NYG 49% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI -3
- ARI 60%
- Fair odds
- ARI -143
- NYG +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 20.5 – 23.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | NYG: Daniel Jones · ARI: Joshua Dobbs (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +70 Elo | ARI 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 58.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 320.0 | Points scored | 16.024th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3240.0 | Points allowed | 20.015th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−40.0 | Margin | −4.022nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 322.63 | Yards per play | 3.6231st of 32 |
| 15th of 324.82 | Yards allowed per play | 3.824th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Giants: last 1