Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Russell WilsonPassing23/38, 306 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Javonte WilliamsRushing11 CAR, 42 YDS
- Courtland SuttonReceiving8 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing23/26, 309 YDS, 4 TD
- De'Von AchaneRushing18 CAR, 203 YDS, 2 TD
- Tyreek HillReceiving9 REC, 157 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q48:01De'Von Achane 67 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)20–70
- Q48:50Marvin Mims Jr. 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Wil Lutz Kick)20–63
- Q49:05Robbie Chosen 68 Yd pass from Mike White (Jason Sanders Kick)13–63
- Q414:55De'Von Achane 10 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)13–56
- Q30:29Raheem Mostert 19 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)13–49
- Q37:48Raheem Mostert 1 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)13–42
- Q20:03Wil Lutz 25 Yd Field Goal13–35
- Q21:29Raheem Mostert 3 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)10–35
- Q21:49Raheem Mostert 20 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)10–28
- Q26:36Wil Lutz 31 Yd Field Goal10–21
- Q210:16De'Von Achane 4 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)7–21
- Q11:12Courtland Sutton 12 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)7–14
- Q16:31De'Von Achane 8 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)0–14
- Q113:37Tyreek Hill 54 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q113:37Tyreek Hill 54 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)DEN 0 – 7 MIA · MIA 63% → 78% +15MIA 63% → 78%+15 pts
- Q16:31De'Von Achane 8 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)DEN 0 – 14 MIA · MIA 78% → 90% +11MIA 78% → 90%+11 pts
- Q11:12Courtland Sutton 12 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 7 – 14 MIA · DEN 10% → 21% +12DEN 10% → 21%+12 pts
- Q210:16De'Von Achane 4 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)DEN 7 – 21 MIA · MIA 79% → 91% +12MIA 79% → 91%+12 pts
- Q21:49Raheem Mostert 20 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)DEN 10 – 28 MIA · MIA 88% → 96% +8MIA 88% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dolphins 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -4
- MIA 64%
- Fair odds
- MIA -169
- DEN +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 20.6 – 24.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | DEN: Russell Wilson · MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +101 Elo | MIA 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 62.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3224.5 | Points scored | 30.03rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3226.0 | Points allowed | 25.519th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−1.5 | Margin | +4.511th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.49 | Yards per play | 7.341st of 32 |
| 19th of 325.36 | Yards allowed per play | 4.9011th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Broncos: last 2