New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Derek CarrPassing32/50, 353 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Alvin KamaraRushing19 CAR, 68 YDS
- Chris OlaveReceiving7 REC, 96 YDS
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing13/27, 199 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Devin SingletaryRushing12 CAR, 58 YDS
- Nico CollinsReceiving4 REC, 80 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q32:17Blake Grupe 45 Yd Field Goal13–20
- Q37:01Ka'imi Fairbairn 22 Yd Field Goal10–20
- Q20:18Blake Grupe 48 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q22:56Robert Woods 6 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)7–17
- Q210:28Ka'imi Fairbairn 24 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q10:13Rashid Shaheed 34 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)7–7
- Q13:41Dalton Schultz 1 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:41Dalton Schultz 1 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)NO 0 – 7 HOU · HOU 53% → 71% +18HOU 53% → 71%+18 pts
- Q10:13Rashid Shaheed 34 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 7 – 7 HOU · NO 28% → 47% +19NO 28% → 47%+19 pts
- Q210:28Ka'imi Fairbairn 24 Yd Field GoalNO 7 – 10 HOU · HOU 53% → 62% +9HOU 53% → 62%+9 pts
- Q22:56Robert Woods 6 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)NO 7 – 17 HOU · HOU 62% → 82% +19HOU 62% → 82%+19 pts
- Q32:17Blake Grupe 45 Yd Field GoalNO 13 – 20 HOU · NO 11% → 19% +8NO 11% → 19%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Texans 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1
- HOU 53%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- NO +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 20.8 – 21.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | NO: Derek Carr · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +23 Elo | HOU 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3219.2 | Points scored | 23.011th of 32 |
| 5th of 3215.2 | Points allowed | 20.011th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+4.0 | Margin | +3.013th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.39 | Yards per play | 5.3513th of 32 |
| 4th of 324.52 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4121st of 32 |
| 9th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 1–112th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.