Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing25/32, 246 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Rachaad WhiteRushing15 CAR, 56 YDS
- Chris Godwin Jr.Receiving8 REC, 114 YDS
Saints- Derek CarrPassing23/37, 127 YDS
- Alvin KamaraRushing11 CAR, 51 YDS
- Michael ThomasReceiving4 REC, 53 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:24Chase McLaughlin 28 Yd Field Goal26–9
- Q43:44Deven Thompkins 5 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)23–9
- Q48:29Blake Grupe 44 Yd Field Goal17–9
- Q413:31Chase McLaughlin 51 Yd Field Goal17–6
- Q30:49Blake Grupe 32 Yd Field Goal14–6
- Q20:19Trey Palmer 1 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)14–3
- Q25:19Cade Otton 4 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–3
- Q19:20Blake Grupe 37 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:20Blake Grupe 37 Yd Field GoalTB 0 – 3 NO · NO 56% → 64% +8NO 56% → 64%+8 pts
- Q25:19Cade Otton 4 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 7 – 3 NO · TB 35% → 58% +22TB 35% → 58%+22 pts
- Q20:19Trey Palmer 1 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 14 – 3 NO · TB 59% → 80% +21TB 59% → 80%+21 pts
- Q30:49Blake Grupe 32 Yd Field GoalTB 14 – 6 NO · NO 10% → 19% +8NO 10% → 19%+8 pts
- Q413:31Chase McLaughlin 51 Yd Field GoalTB 17 – 6 NO · TB 84% → 92% +8TB 84% → 92%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Saints 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -2
- NO 57%
- Fair odds
- NO -131
- TB +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 20.4 – 22.3 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | TB: Baker Mayfield · NO: Derek Carr (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +51 Elo | NO 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 56.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3219.3 | Points scored | 17.724th of 32 |
| 9th of 3219.7 | Points allowed | 16.76th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +1.013th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324.74 | Yards per play | 4.7720th of 32 |
| 27th of 325.61 | Yards allowed per play | 4.657th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.