Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing23/37, 277 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- D'Andre SwiftRushing16 CAR, 130 YDS
- A.J. BrownReceiving9 REC, 131 YDS
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing15/25, 146 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rachaad WhiteRushing14 CAR, 38 YDS
- Mike EvansReceiving5 REC, 60 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q49:22Mike Evans 1 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Baker Mayfield Pass to Chris Godwin for Two-Point Conversion)25–11
- Q413:28Jake Elliott 26 Yd Field Goal25–3
- Q33:40Nicholas Morrow Safety22–3
- Q39:12Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)20–3
- Q20:00Jake Elliott 38 Yd Field Goal13–3
- Q23:32Olamide Zaccheaus 34 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)10–3
- Q28:33Chase McLaughlin 33 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q13:05Jake Elliott 36 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:05Jake Elliott 36 Yd Field GoalPHI 3 – 0 TB · PHI 46% → 54% +8PHI 46% → 54%+8 pts
- Q28:33Chase McLaughlin 33 Yd Field GoalPHI 3 – 3 TB · TB 45% → 54% +9TB 45% → 54%+9 pts
- Q23:32Olamide Zaccheaus 34 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 10 – 3 TB · PHI 46% → 69% +23PHI 46% → 69%+23 pts
- Q20:00Jake Elliott 38 Yd Field GoalPHI 13 – 3 TB · PHI 70% → 79% +8PHI 70% → 79%+8 pts
- Q39:12Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 20 – 3 TB · PHI 82% → 95% +13PHI 82% → 95%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Buccaneers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -1.5
- TB 55%
- Fair odds
- TB -122
- PHI +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 21.5 – 22.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | PHI: Jalen Hurts · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +33 Elo | TB 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3229.5 | Points scored | 23.516th of 32 |
| 20th of 3224.0 | Points allowed | 17.07th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+5.5 | Margin | +6.57th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.01 | Yards per play | 4.9918th of 32 |
| 29th of 325.68 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3116th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Eagles: last 2