Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Justin FieldsPassing16/29, 211 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Khalil HerbertRushing7 CAR, 35 YDS
- DJ MooreReceiving6 REC, 104 YDS
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing26/34, 317 YDS, 1 TD
- Rachaad WhiteRushing17 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- Mike EvansReceiving6 REC, 171 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:03Shaquil Barrett 4 Yd Interception Return (Chase McLaughlin Kick)17–27
- Q46:17Chase Claypool 20 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Cairo Santos Kick)17–20
- Q34:06Mike Evans 32 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)10–20
- Q20:00Chase McLaughlin 25 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q21:55Cairo Santos 52 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q210:53Rachaad White 4 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–10
- Q16:17Justin Fields 1 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)7–3
- Q19:03Chase McLaughlin 26 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:17Justin Fields 1 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 7 – 3 TB · CHI 31% → 50% +18CHI 31% → 50%+18 pts
- Q210:53Rachaad White 4 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)CHI 7 – 10 TB · TB 48% → 68% +21TB 48% → 68%+21 pts
- Q34:06Mike Evans 32 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)CHI 10 – 20 TB · TB 69% → 90% +21TB 69% → 90%+21 pts
- Q46:17Chase Claypool 20 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 17 – 20 TB · CHI 2% → 25% +23CHI 2% → 25%+23 pts
- Q42:03Shaquil Barrett 4 Yd Interception Return (Chase McLaughlin Kick)CHI 17 – 27 TB · TB 86% → >99% +14TB 86% → >99%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Buccaneers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -4
- TB 64%
- Fair odds
- TB -163
- CHI +163 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 20.3 – 23.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | CHI: Justin Fields · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +97 Elo | TB 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 62.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3220.0 | Points scored | 20.016th of 32 |
| 31st of 3238.0 | Points allowed | 17.012th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−18.0 | Margin | +3.012th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324.44 | Yards per play | 3.5630th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.48 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8630th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Bears: last 1