New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Derek CarrPassing18/26, 183 YDS, 2 TD
- Alvin KamaraRushing22 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- Michael ThomasReceiving4 REC, 65 YDS
Patriots- Mac JonesPassing12/22, 110 YDS, 2 INT
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing8 CAR, 24 YDS
- Kendrick BourneReceiving2 REC, 43 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:43Blake Grupe 53 Yd Field Goal34–0
- Q413:03Foster Moreau 6 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)31–0
- Q311:34Blake Grupe 54 Yd Field Goal24–0
- Q210:47Chris Olave 5 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)21–0
- Q214:23Alvin Kamara 2 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)14–0
- Q17:02Tyrann Mathieu 27 Yd Interception Return (Blake Grupe Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:02Tyrann Mathieu 27 Yd Interception Return (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 7 – 0 NE · NO 48% → 67% +18NO 48% → 67%+18 pts
- Q214:23Alvin Kamara 2 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 14 – 0 NE · NO 68% → 84% +16NO 68% → 84%+16 pts
- Q210:47Chris Olave 5 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 21 – 0 NE · NO 85% → 94% +9NO 85% → 94%+9 pts
- Q311:34Blake Grupe 54 Yd Field GoalNO 24 – 0 NE · NO 97% → 99% +1NO 97% → 99%+1 pts
- Q413:03Foster Moreau 6 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 31 – 0 NE · NO >99% → >99% +0NO >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Patriots 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NE -0.5
- NE 51%
- Fair odds
- NE -107
- NO +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 20.9 – 21.4 NE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | NO: Derek Carr · NE: Mac Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NE +8 Elo | NE 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 51.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3215.5 | Points scored | 13.830th of 32 |
| 9th of 3219.0 | Points allowed | 24.321st of 32 |
| 20th of 32−3.5 | Margin | −10.529th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.41 | Yards per play | 4.6924th of 32 |
| 8th of 324.81 | Yards allowed per play | 4.716th of 32 |
| 12th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 0–223rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.