New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Mac JonesPassing12/21, 150 YDS, 2 INT
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing14 CAR, 30 YDS
- Hunter HenryReceiving4 REC, 51 YDS
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing28/34, 261 YDS, 1 TD
- Tony PollardRushing11 CAR, 47 YDS
- Jake FergusonReceiving7 REC, 77 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q46:38Hunter Luepke 3 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)3–38
- Q37:42Brandon Aubrey 33 Yd Field Goal3–31
- Q20:54DaRon Bland 54 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Aubrey Kick)3–28
- Q24:03Brandon Aubrey 23 Yd Field Goal3–21
- Q211:09Leighton Vander Esch 11 Yd Fumble Return (Bryan Anger Pass to Chauncey Golston for Two-Point Conversion)3–18
- Q11:30CeeDee Lamb 20 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)3–10
- Q16:41Chad Ryland 29 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q110:52Brandon Aubrey 23 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:52Brandon Aubrey 23 Yd Field GoalNE 0 – 3 DAL · DAL 62% → 69% +7DAL 62% → 69%+7 pts
- Q16:41Chad Ryland 29 Yd Field GoalNE 3 – 3 DAL · NE 31% → 39% +8NE 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q11:30CeeDee Lamb 20 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)NE 3 – 10 DAL · DAL 61% → 78% +17DAL 61% → 78%+17 pts
- Q211:09Leighton Vander Esch 11 Yd Fumble Return (Bryan Anger Pass to Chauncey Golston for Two-Point Conversion)NE 3 – 18 DAL · DAL 79% → 92% +13DAL 79% → 92%+13 pts
- Q20:54DaRon Bland 54 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Aubrey Kick)NE 3 – 28 DAL · DAL 96% → >99% +3DAL 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cowboys 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -4
- DAL 64%
- Fair odds
- DAL -165
- NE +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 19.8 – 23.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | NE: Mac Jones · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +99 Elo | DAL 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 62.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3217.3 | Points scored | 28.76th of 32 |
| 11th of 3219.7 | Points allowed | 12.71st of 32 |
| 21st of 32−2.3 | Margin | +16.02nd of 32 |
| 24th of 324.72 | Yards per play | 4.9916th of 32 |
| 4th of 324.43 | Yards allowed per play | 4.799th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.