Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing25/40, 249 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Tony PollardRushing23 CAR, 122 YDS
- Michael GallupReceiving6 REC, 92 YDS
Cardinals- Joshua DobbsPassing17/21, 189 YDS, 1 TD
- James ConnerRushing14 CAR, 98 YDS, 1 TD
- Michael WilsonReceiving2 REC, 86 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q47:22Marquise Brown 2 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Matt Prater Kick)16–28
- Q49:33Brandon Aubrey 26 Yd Field Goal16–21
- Q39:27Brandon Aubrey 27 Yd Field Goal13–21
- Q20:00Matt Prater 62 Yd Field Goal10–21
- Q21:28Matt Prater 43 Yd Field Goal10–18
- Q25:32Rico Dowdle 15 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)10–15
- Q212:31Rondale Moore 45 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)3–15
- Q11:48Brandon Aubrey 49 Yd Field Goal3–9
- Q16:12James Conner 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)0–9
- Q112:31Matt Prater 39 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:12James Conner 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)DAL 0 – 9 ARI · ARI 50% → 66% +16ARI 50% → 66%+16 pts
- Q212:31Rondale Moore 45 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)DAL 3 – 15 ARI · ARI 60% → 76% +16ARI 60% → 76%+16 pts
- Q25:32Rico Dowdle 15 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 10 – 15 ARI · DAL 21% → 41% +20DAL 21% → 41%+20 pts
- Q49:33Brandon Aubrey 26 Yd Field GoalDAL 16 – 21 ARI · DAL 12% → 24% +12DAL 12% → 24%+12 pts
- Q47:22Marquise Brown 2 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Matt Prater Kick)DAL 16 – 28 ARI · ARI 79% → 98% +19ARI 79% → 98%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cowboys 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -3.5
- DAL 62%
- Fair odds
- DAL -142
- ARI +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 23.3 – 20.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | DAL: Dak Prescott · ARI: Joshua Dobbs (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +86 Elo | DAL 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 58.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3235.0 | Points scored | 22.017th of 32 |
| 1st of 325.0 | Points allowed | 25.521st of 32 |
| 1st of 32+30.0 | Margin | −3.520th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324.69 | Yards per play | 4.9918th of 32 |
| 2nd of 323.48 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2014th of 32 |
| 1st of 311–0 | Road vs home | 0–118th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Cowboys: last 2