New England Patriots at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Mac JonesPassing15/29, 201 YDS, 1 TD
- Ezekiel ElliottRushing16 CAR, 80 YDS
- Pharaoh BrownReceiving2 REC, 71 YDS, 1 TD
Jets- Zach WilsonPassing18/36, 157 YDS
- Dalvin CookRushing8 CAR, 18 YDS
- Garrett WilsonReceiving5 REC, 48 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:19Zach Wilson sacked in End Zone, SAFETY15–10
- Q45:24Nick Bawden 1 Yd Run (Greg Zuerlein Kick)13–10
- Q310:26Chad Ryland 51 Yd Field Goal13–3
- Q21:21Greg Zuerlein 52 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q211:38Pharaoh Brown 58 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Chad Ryland Kick)10–0
- Q110:41Chad Ryland 48 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:38Pharaoh Brown 58 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Chad Ryland Kick)NE 10 – 0 NYJ · NE 51% → 71% +20NE 51% → 71%+20 pts
- Q21:21Greg Zuerlein 52 Yd Field GoalNE 10 – 3 NYJ · NYJ 25% → 33% +9NYJ 25% → 33%+9 pts
- Q310:26Chad Ryland 51 Yd Field GoalNE 13 – 3 NYJ · NE 70% → 79% +9NE 70% → 79%+9 pts
- Q45:24Nick Bawden 1 Yd Run (Greg Zuerlein Kick)NE 13 – 10 NYJ · NYJ 2% → 29% +27NYJ 2% → 29%+27 pts
- Q42:19Zach Wilson sacked in End Zone, SAFETYNE 15 – 10 NYJ · NE 82% → 94% +12NE 82% → 94%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYJ 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYJ -3
- NYJ 61%
- Fair odds
- NYJ -150
- NE +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 20.4 – 23.2 NYJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −1 | NE: Mac Jones · NYJ: Zach Wilson, usually Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NYJ +77 Elo | NYJ 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYJ 59.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3218.5 | Points scored | 16.027th of 32 |
| 17th of 3224.5 | Points allowed | 23.015th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−6.0 | Margin | −7.025th of 32 |
| 27th of 324.50 | Yards per play | 5.0915th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.25 | Yards allowed per play | 4.618th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Patriots: last 2