Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Will LevisPassing13/17, 158 YDS, 2 TD
- Chris MooreRushing1 CAR, 38 YDS
- DeAndre HopkinsReceiving4 REC, 59 YDS, 1 TD
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing24/32, 262 YDS, 2 TD
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing14 CAR, 52 YDS
- Calvin RidleyReceiving7 REC, 103 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:28Jeffery Simmons 2 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)14–34
- Q47:28Trevor Lawrence 5 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)7–34
- Q30:00DeAndre Hopkins 43 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)7–27
- Q33:22Calvin Ridley 20 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Brandon McManus Kick)0–27
- Q39:12Trevor Lawrence 9 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)0–20
- Q20:14Brandon McManus 25 Yd Field Goal0–13
- Q22:43Brandon McManus 30 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q12:58Calvin Ridley 3 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Brandon McManus Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:58Calvin Ridley 3 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Brandon McManus Kick)TEN 0 – 7 JAX · JAX 66% → 82% +16JAX 66% → 82%+16 pts
- Q22:43Brandon McManus 30 Yd Field GoalTEN 0 – 10 JAX · JAX 82% → 88% +6JAX 82% → 88%+6 pts
- Q20:14Brandon McManus 25 Yd Field GoalTEN 0 – 13 JAX · JAX 89% → 93% +4JAX 89% → 93%+4 pts
- Q39:12Trevor Lawrence 9 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)TEN 0 – 20 JAX · JAX 94% → 99% +5JAX 94% → 99%+5 pts
- Q33:22Calvin Ridley 20 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Brandon McManus Kick)TEN 0 – 27 JAX · JAX >99% → >99% +1JAX >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jaguars 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -6
- JAX 70%
- Fair odds
- JAX -209
- TEN +209 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 18.4 – 23.6 JAX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +1 | — | TEN: Will Levis, usually Ryan Tannehill · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +148 Elo | JAX 70.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 67.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3217.1 | Points scored | 21.815th of 32 |
| 10th of 3220.0 | Points allowed | 21.115th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−2.9 | Margin | +0.714th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324.98 | Yards per play | 5.0521st of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.38 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4225th of 32 |
| 30th of 320–5 | Road vs home | 1–326th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.