Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing24/32, 292 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing24 CAR, 79 YDS
- Evan EngramReceiving10 REC, 88 YDS
Steelers- Mitchell TrubiskyPassing15/27, 138 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Jaylen WarrenRushing5 CAR, 19 YDS
- Diontae JohnsonReceiving8 REC, 85 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:35Brandon McManus 37 Yd Field Goal20–10
- Q30:53George Pickens 22 Yd pass from Mitch Trubisky (Chris Boswell Kick)17–10
- Q35:05Travis Etienne Jr. 56 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Travis Etienne Jr. Run for Two-Point Conversion)17–3
- Q21:04Brandon McManus 38 Yd Field Goal9–3
- Q23:59Chris Boswell 22 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q15:54Brandon McManus 51 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q110:47Brandon McManus 50 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:54Brandon McManus 51 Yd Field GoalJAX 6 – 0 PIT · JAX 58% → 66% +8JAX 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q23:59Chris Boswell 22 Yd Field GoalJAX 6 – 3 PIT · PIT 31% → 40% +9PIT 31% → 40%+9 pts
- Q21:04Brandon McManus 38 Yd Field GoalJAX 9 – 3 PIT · JAX 60% → 70% +10JAX 60% → 70%+10 pts
- Q35:05Travis Etienne Jr. 56 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Travis Etienne Jr. Run for Two-Point Conversion)JAX 17 – 3 PIT · JAX 74% → 94% +19JAX 74% → 94%+19 pts
- Q30:53George Pickens 22 Yd pass from Mitch Trubisky (Chris Boswell Kick)JAX 17 – 10 PIT · PIT 4% → 20% +15PIT 4% → 20%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jaguars 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -0.5
- JAX 52%
- Fair odds
- JAX -100
- PIT +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 21.6 – 21.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | JAX: Trevor Lawrence · PIT: Kenny Pickett (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +11 Elo | JAX 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 50.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 3224.7 | Points scored | 17.227th of 32 |
| 16th of 3220.9 | Points allowed | 21.217th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+3.9 | Margin | −4.023rd of 32 |
| 19th of 325.05 | Yards per play | 4.6827th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.37 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5825th of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 2–110th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.