Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Kenny PickettPassing17/25, 230 YDS
- Najee HarrisRushing14 CAR, 53 YDS, 1 TD
- George PickensReceiving5 REC, 107 YDS
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing14/29, 231 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Royce FreemanRushing12 CAR, 66 YDS
- Puka NacuaReceiving8 REC, 154 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q47:20Najee Harris 3 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)24–17
- Q413:49Jaylen Warren 13 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)17–17
- Q38:57Darrell Henderson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Matthew Stafford Pass to Cooper Kupp for Two-Point Conversion)10–17
- Q313:19Kenny Pickett 1 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)10–9
- Q20:17Tutu Atwell 31 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brett Maher PAT failed)3–9
- Q25:56Brett Maher 41 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q214:51Chris Boswell 53 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q20:17Tutu Atwell 31 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brett Maher PAT failed)PIT 3 – 9 LAR · LAR 55% → 75% +19LAR 55% → 75%+19 pts
- Q313:19Kenny Pickett 1 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 10 – 9 LAR · PIT 25% → 48% +24PIT 25% → 48%+24 pts
- Q38:57Darrell Henderson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Matthew Stafford Pass to Cooper Kupp for Two-Point Conversion)PIT 10 – 17 LAR · LAR 51% → 79% +28LAR 51% → 79%+28 pts
- Q413:49Jaylen Warren 13 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 17 – 17 LAR · PIT 16% → 46% +31PIT 16% → 46%+31 pts
- Q47:20Najee Harris 3 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 24 – 17 LAR · PIT 47% → 88% +41PIT 47% → 88%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rams 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -2.5
- LAR 59%
- Fair odds
- LAR -136
- PIT +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 20.2 – 22.4 LAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | PIT: Kenny Pickett · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +61 Elo | LAR 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 57.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3215.8 | Points scored | 23.013th of 32 |
| 19th of 3222.0 | Points allowed | 19.511th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−6.2 | Margin | +3.510th of 32 |
| 28th of 324.55 | Yards per play | 5.568th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.56 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1716th of 32 |
| 13th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–219th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.