Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing27/40, 319 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Kyren WilliamsRushing25 CAR, 103 YDS, 2 TD
- Puka NacuaReceiving9 REC, 163 YDS, 1 TD
Colts- Anthony Richardson Sr.Passing11/25, 200 YDS, 2 TD
- Zack MossRushing18 CAR, 70 YDS
- Drew OgletreeReceiving3 REC, 48 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- OT5:49Puka Nacua 22 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford29–23
- Q41:56Drew Ogletree 5 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Anthony Richardson Pass to Michael Pittman Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)23–23
- Q411:45Anthony Richardson 1 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)23–15
- Q35:26Mo Alie-Cox 35 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Anthony Richardson Pass to Zack Moss for Two-Point Conversion)23–8
- Q37:17Brett Maher 51 Yd Field Goal23–0
- Q25:48Brett Maher 54 Yd Field Goal20–0
- Q212:52Brett Maher 40 Yd Field Goal17–0
- Q13:40Kyren Williams 3 Yd Run (Brett Maher Kick)14–0
- Q111:35Kyren Williams 3 Yd Run (Brett Maher Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:35Kyren Williams 3 Yd Run (Brett Maher Kick)LAR 7 – 0 IND · LAR 41% → 59% +18LAR 41% → 59%+18 pts
- Q13:40Kyren Williams 3 Yd Run (Brett Maher Kick)LAR 14 – 0 IND · LAR 61% → 78% +17LAR 61% → 78%+17 pts
- Q411:45Anthony Richardson 1 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)LAR 23 – 15 IND · IND 2% → 15% +13IND 2% → 15%+13 pts
- Q41:56Drew Ogletree 5 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Anthony Richardson Pass to Michael Pittman Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)LAR 23 – 23 IND · IND <1% → 52% +51IND <1% → 52%+51 pts
- OT5:49Puka Nacua 22 Yd pass from Matthew StaffordLAR 29 – 23 IND · LAR 47% → 87% +40LAR 47% → 87%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Colts 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -2.5
- IND 60%
- Fair odds
- IND -143
- LAR +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 20.9 – 23.4 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | 0 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · IND: Anthony Richardson Sr. (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +67 Elo | IND 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 58.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3223.0 | Points scored | 24.711th of 32 |
| 14th of 3220.7 | Points allowed | 23.319th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+2.3 | Margin | +1.312th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.31 | Yards per play | 4.5925th of 32 |
| 11th of 324.91 | Yards allowed per play | 4.9812th of 32 |
| 14th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 0–121st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.