Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Gardner Minshew IIPassing27/44, 227 YDS, 1 TD
- Zack MossRushing30 CAR, 122 YDS
- Michael Pittman Jr.Receiving9 REC, 77 YDS
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing22/31, 202 YDS
- Lamar JacksonRushing14 CAR, 101 YDS, 2 TD
- Zay FlowersReceiving8 REC, 48 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT1:09Matt Gay 53 Yd Field Goal22–19
- Q40:57Matt Gay 53 Yd Field Goal19–19
- Q42:03Gardner Minshew sacked ob in End Zone, SAFETY.16–19
- Q47:33Justin Tucker 50 Yd Field Goal16–17
- Q411:22Matt Gay 53 Yd Field Goal16–14
- Q30:13Lamar Jackson 10 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)13–14
- Q38:33Matt Gay 54 Yd Field Goal13–7
- Q23:26Matt Gay 31 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q26:07Zack Moss 17 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Matt Gay Kick)7–7
- Q16:35Lamar Jackson 8 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q30:13Lamar Jackson 10 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)IND 13 – 14 BAL · BAL 27% → 61% +33BAL 27% → 61%+33 pts
- Q47:33Justin Tucker 50 Yd Field GoalIND 16 – 17 BAL · BAL 40% → 61% +21BAL 40% → 61%+21 pts
- Q42:03Gardner Minshew sacked ob in End Zone, SAFETY.IND 16 – 19 BAL · BAL 65% → 86% +21BAL 65% → 86%+21 pts
- Q40:57Matt Gay 53 Yd Field GoalIND 19 – 19 BAL · IND 6% → 49% +42IND 6% → 49%+42 pts
- OT1:09Matt Gay 53 Yd Field GoalIND 22 – 19 BAL · IND 48% → 91% +42IND 48% → 91%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ravens 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -3.5
- BAL 62%
- Fair odds
- BAL -158
- IND +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 20.6 – 23.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −6 | — | IND: Gardner Minshew II, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +87 Elo | BAL 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 61.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3226.0 | Points scored | 26.010th of 32 |
| 19th of 3225.5 | Points allowed | 16.57th of 32 |
| 17th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +9.54th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.06 | Yards per play | 5.3110th of 32 |
| 12th of 324.94 | Yards allowed per play | 4.265th of 32 |
| 1st of 281–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Colts: last 2