Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Joshua DobbsPassing21/41, 235 YDS, 1 INT
- Joshua DobbsRushing7 CAR, 47 YDS
- Michael WilsonReceiving3 REC, 62 YDS
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing15/24, 226 YDS, 1 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing20 CAR, 158 YDS, 1 TD
- Cooper KuppReceiving7 REC, 148 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:37Brett Maher 43 Yd Field Goal9–26
- Q48:19Kyren Williams 5 Yd Run (Brett Maher Kick)9–23
- Q32:44Brett Maher 25 Yd Field Goal9–16
- Q38:57Cooper Kupp 13 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brett Maher Kick)9–13
- Q20:04Brett Maher 35 Yd Field Goal9–6
- Q20:43Matt Prater 27 Yd Field Goal9–3
- Q212:35Matt Prater 32 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q10:11Brett Maher 29 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q111:25Matt Prater 55 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q20:43Matt Prater 27 Yd Field GoalARI 9 – 3 LAR · ARI 52% → 62% +10ARI 52% → 62%+10 pts
- Q20:04Brett Maher 35 Yd Field GoalARI 9 – 6 LAR · LAR 38% → 48% +10LAR 38% → 48%+10 pts
- Q38:57Cooper Kupp 13 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brett Maher Kick)ARI 9 – 13 LAR · LAR 46% → 72% +26LAR 46% → 72%+26 pts
- Q32:44Brett Maher 25 Yd Field GoalARI 9 – 16 LAR · LAR 74% → 84% +10LAR 74% → 84%+10 pts
- Q48:19Kyren Williams 5 Yd Run (Brett Maher Kick)ARI 9 – 23 LAR · LAR 90% → >99% +9LAR 90% → >99%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rams 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -4
- LAR 64%
- Fair odds
- LAR -163
- ARI +163 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 20.5 – 24.0 LAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1436 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | ARI: Joshua Dobbs · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +97 Elo | LAR 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 62.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 3221.6 | Points scored | 22.414th of 32 |
| 27th of 3227.2 | Points allowed | 21.617th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−5.6 | Margin | +0.816th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.58 | Yards per play | 5.3412th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.54 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2819th of 32 |
| 28th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 0–226th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.