Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Joshua DobbsPassing28/41, 265 YDS, 2 TD
- James ConnerRushing11 CAR, 52 YDS
- Hollywood BrownReceiving7 REC, 96 YDS
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing20/21, 283 YDS, 1 TD
- Christian McCaffreyRushing20 CAR, 106 YDS, 3 TD
- Brandon AiyukReceiving6 REC, 148 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:59Brock Purdy 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)16–35
- Q414:22Christian McCaffrey 2 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)16–28
- Q34:12Michael Wilson 8 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs16–21
- Q20:23Michael Wilson 16 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Matt Prater Kick)10–21
- Q25:22Christian McCaffrey 6 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)3–21
- Q28:14Matt Prater 38 Yd Field Goal3–14
- Q214:14Christian McCaffrey 18 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)0–14
- Q19:07Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:07Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)ARI 0 – 7 SF · SF 65% → 80% +15SF 65% → 80%+15 pts
- Q214:14Christian McCaffrey 18 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)ARI 0 – 14 SF · SF 80% → 91% +11SF 80% → 91%+11 pts
- Q25:22Christian McCaffrey 6 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)ARI 3 – 21 SF · SF 89% → 96% +8SF 89% → 96%+8 pts
- Q34:12Michael Wilson 8 Yd pass from Joshua DobbsARI 16 – 21 SF · ARI 7% → 22% +14ARI 7% → 22%+14 pts
- Q414:22Christian McCaffrey 2 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)ARI 16 – 28 SF · SF 80% → 96% +16SF 80% → 96%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
49ers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -5
- SF 68%
- Fair odds
- SF -190
- ARI +190 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 19.8 – 24.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1595 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | ARI: Joshua Dobbs · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +129 Elo | SF 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 65.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3224.0 | Points scored | 30.03rd of 32 |
| 17th of 3222.3 | Points allowed | 14.04th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+1.7 | Margin | +16.02nd of 32 |
| 8th of 325.78 | Yards per play | 6.053rd of 32 |
| 21st of 325.33 | Yards allowed per play | 4.193rd of 32 |
| 25th of 320–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.