Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing36/46, 317 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Joe MixonRushing25 CAR, 81 YDS
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving15 REC, 192 YDS, 3 TD
Cardinals- Joshua DobbsPassing15/32, 166 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Rondale MooreRushing3 CAR, 50 YDS
- Hollywood BrownReceiving4 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q46:33Evan McPherson 40 Yd Field Goal34–20
- Q47:48Ja'Marr Chase 3 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)31–20
- Q37:33Emari Demercado 11 Yd Run (Matt Prater PAT failed)24–20
- Q313:39Ja'Marr Chase 63 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)24–14
- Q21:23Cam Taylor-Britt 11 Yd Interception Return (Evan McPherson Kick)17–14
- Q28:28Zach Ertz 4 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Matt Prater Kick)10–14
- Q212:25Marquise Brown 25 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Matt Prater Kick)10–7
- Q11:46Evan McPherson 40 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q17:09Ja'Marr Chase 2 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:28Zach Ertz 4 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Matt Prater Kick)CIN 10 – 14 ARI · ARI 49% → 70% +21ARI 49% → 70%+21 pts
- Q21:23Cam Taylor-Britt 11 Yd Interception Return (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 17 – 14 ARI · CIN 30% → 53% +23CIN 30% → 53%+23 pts
- Q313:39Ja'Marr Chase 63 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 24 – 14 ARI · CIN 54% → 77% +23CIN 54% → 77%+23 pts
- Q37:33Emari Demercado 11 Yd Run (Matt Prater PAT failed)CIN 24 – 20 ARI · ARI 19% → 40% +21ARI 19% → 40%+21 pts
- Q47:48Ja'Marr Chase 3 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 31 – 20 ARI · CIN 73% → 97% +24CIN 73% → 97%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI -3.5
- ARI 62%
- Fair odds
- ARI -150
- CIN +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 20.3 – 23.2 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | CIN: Joe Burrow · ARI: Joshua Dobbs (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +81 Elo | ARI 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 60.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3212.3 | Points scored | 22.017th of 32 |
| 20th of 3223.5 | Points allowed | 25.524th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−11.3 | Margin | −3.522nd of 32 |
| 31st of 324.00 | Yards per play | 5.689th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.69 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7627th of 32 |
| 26th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 1–111th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.