Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing20/30, 165 YDS
- Joe MixonRushing14 CAR, 67 YDS
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving7 REC, 73 YDS
Titans- Ryan TannehillPassing18/25, 240 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Derrick HenryRushing22 CAR, 122 YDS, 1 TD
- DeAndre HopkinsReceiving4 REC, 63 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q34:38Nick Folk 35 Yd Field Goal3–27
- Q20:10Josh Whyle 2 Yd pass from Derrick Henry (Nick Folk Kick)3–24
- Q23:58Derrick Henry 29 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)3–17
- Q26:31Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 13 Yd pass from Ryan Tannehill (Nick Folk Kick)3–10
- Q11:24Nick Folk 53 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q19:12Evan McPherson 21 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:12Evan McPherson 21 Yd Field GoalCIN 3 – 0 TEN · CIN 45% → 53% +8CIN 45% → 53%+8 pts
- Q11:24Nick Folk 53 Yd Field GoalCIN 3 – 3 TEN · TEN 46% → 55% +9TEN 46% → 55%+9 pts
- Q26:31Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 13 Yd pass from Ryan Tannehill (Nick Folk Kick)CIN 3 – 10 TEN · TEN 54% → 75% +21TEN 54% → 75%+21 pts
- Q23:58Derrick Henry 29 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)CIN 3 – 17 TEN · TEN 75% → 90% +14TEN 75% → 90%+14 pts
- Q20:10Josh Whyle 2 Yd pass from Derrick Henry (Nick Folk Kick)CIN 3 – 24 TEN · TEN 91% → 98% +7TEN 91% → 98%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Titans 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEN -1.5
- TEN 56%
- Fair odds
- TEN -125
- CIN +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 20.7 – 22.2 TEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | CIN: Joe Burrow · TEN: Ryan Tannehill (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TEN +39 Elo | TEN 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEN 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEN 55.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3215.3 | Points scored | 15.029th of 32 |
| 16th of 3222.3 | Points allowed | 22.316th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−7.0 | Margin | −7.326th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.96 | Yards per play | 4.3129th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.45 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2817th of 32 |
| 23rd of 320–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.