Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Ryan TannehillPassing13/25, 104 YDS
- Derrick HenryRushing11 CAR, 20 YDS
- DeAndre HopkinsReceiving3 REC, 48 YDS
Browns- Deshaun WatsonPassing27/33, 289 YDS, 2 TD
- Pierre Strong Jr.Rushing6 CAR, 27 YDS
- Amari CooperReceiving7 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q46:51Amari Cooper 43 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Dustin Hopkins Kick)3–27
- Q35:49Jerome Ford 3 Yd Run (Dustin Hopkins Kick)3–20
- Q21:00Dustin Hopkins 52 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q29:39Jerome Ford 19 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Dustin Hopkins Kick)3–10
- Q214:14Nick Folk 44 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q17:49Dustin Hopkins 48 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:49Dustin Hopkins 48 Yd Field GoalTEN 0 – 3 CLE · CLE 55% → 63% +8CLE 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q214:14Nick Folk 44 Yd Field GoalTEN 3 – 3 CLE · TEN 37% → 45% +9TEN 37% → 45%+9 pts
- Q29:39Jerome Ford 19 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Dustin Hopkins Kick)TEN 3 – 10 CLE · CLE 55% → 74% +20CLE 55% → 74%+20 pts
- Q21:00Dustin Hopkins 52 Yd Field GoalTEN 3 – 13 CLE · CLE 76% → 84% +7CLE 76% → 84%+7 pts
- Q35:49Jerome Ford 3 Yd Run (Dustin Hopkins Kick)TEN 3 – 20 CLE · CLE 87% → 97% +10CLE 87% → 97%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Browns 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -1.5
- CLE 56%
- Fair odds
- CLE -125
- TEN +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 20.9 – 22.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | TEN: Ryan Tannehill · CLE: Deshaun Watson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +40 Elo | CLE 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3221.0 | Points scored | 23.017th of 32 |
| 11th of 3220.0 | Points allowed | 14.53rd of 32 |
| 15th of 32+1.0 | Margin | +8.55th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.13 | Yards per play | 4.9522nd of 32 |
| 20th of 325.37 | Yards allowed per play | 3.712nd of 32 |
| 18th of 280–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Titans: last 2