Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing25/38, 303 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jalen HurtsRushing15 CAR, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- A.J. BrownReceiving6 REC, 127 YDS
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing21/37, 222 YDS, 2 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing13 CAR, 53 YDS
- Cooper KuppReceiving8 REC, 118 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:06Jake Elliott 26 Yd Field Goal23–14
- Q412:29Jake Elliott 26 Yd Field Goal20–14
- Q20:00Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)17–14
- Q20:32Puka Nacua 22 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brett Maher Kick)10–14
- Q22:15Jake Elliott 34 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q12:01Tutu Atwell 3 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brett Maher Kick)7–7
- Q18:37Dallas Goedert 6 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:37Dallas Goedert 6 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 7 – 0 LAR · PHI 53% → 70% +18PHI 53% → 70%+18 pts
- Q12:01Tutu Atwell 3 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brett Maher Kick)PHI 7 – 7 LAR · LAR 29% → 47% +19LAR 29% → 47%+19 pts
- Q20:32Puka Nacua 22 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brett Maher Kick)PHI 10 – 14 LAR · LAR 38% → 62% +24LAR 38% → 62%+24 pts
- Q20:00Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 17 – 14 LAR · PHI 38% → 63% +24PHI 38% → 63%+24 pts
- Q412:29Jake Elliott 26 Yd Field GoalPHI 20 – 14 LAR · PHI 67% → 81% +13PHI 67% → 81%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Eagles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -1.5
- PHI 55%
- Fair odds
- PHI -113
- LAR +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 23.0 – 22.1 LAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1591 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | PHI: Jalen Hurts · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +32 Elo | PHI 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3229.5 | Points scored | 24.512th of 32 |
| 17th of 3222.5 | Points allowed | 21.314th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+7.0 | Margin | +3.313th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.58 | Yards per play | 5.4911th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.16 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1015th of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 0–124th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.