Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Sam HowellPassing29/41, 290 YDS, 1 TD
- Brian Robinson Jr.Rushing14 CAR, 45 YDS, 1 TD
- Terry McLaurinReceiving8 REC, 86 YDS
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing25/37, 319 YDS, 2 TD
- D'Andre SwiftRushing14 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- A.J. BrownReceiving9 REC, 175 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- OT3:58Jake Elliott 54 Yd Field Goal31–34
- Q40:00Jahan Dotson 10 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)31–31
- Q41:43A.J. Brown 28 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)24–31
- Q48:01Brian Robinson Jr. 15 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)24–24
- Q414:15Jake Elliott 36 Yd Field Goal17–24
- Q37:11A.J. Brown 59 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Kenneth Gainwell Run for Two-Point Conversion)17–21
- Q311:38Jake Elliott 47 Yd Field Goal17–13
- Q20:00Jake Elliott 41 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q21:39Joey Slye 27 Yd Field Goal17–7
- Q212:56Terry McLaurin 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (Joey Slye Kick)14–7
- Q11:17D'Andre Swift 5 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)7–7
- Q17:52Curtis Samuel 1 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:11A.J. Brown 59 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Kenneth Gainwell Run for Two-Point Conversion)WSH 17 – 21 PHI · PHI 44% → 75% +31PHI 44% → 75%+31 pts
- Q48:01Brian Robinson Jr. 15 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)WSH 24 – 24 PHI · WSH 9% → 44% +35WSH 9% → 44%+35 pts
- Q41:43A.J. Brown 28 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)WSH 24 – 31 PHI · PHI 53% → >99% +47PHI 53% → >99%+47 pts
- Q40:00Jahan Dotson 10 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)WSH 31 – 31 PHI · WSH 0% → 43% +43WSH 0% → 43%+43 pts
- OT3:58Jake Elliott 54 Yd Field GoalWSH 31 – 34 PHI · PHI 54% → 80% +26PHI 54% → 80%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Eagles 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -5.5
- PHI 69%
- Fair odds
- PHI -194
- WSH +194 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 20.0 – 24.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1581 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | WSH: Sam Howell · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +137 Elo | PHI 68.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 66.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3219.3 | Points scored | 28.07th of 32 |
| 27th of 3228.7 | Points allowed | 19.79th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−9.3 | Margin | +8.37th of 32 |
| 21st of 324.76 | Yards per play | 5.3911th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.38 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2515th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.