Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing22/38, 236 YDS, 1 INT
- Gus EdwardsRushing12 CAR, 48 YDS
- Zay FlowersReceiving5 REC, 73 YDS
Steelers- Kenny PickettPassing18/32, 224 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaylen WarrenRushing9 CAR, 40 YDS
- George PickensReceiving6 REC, 130 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:49Chris Boswell 42 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q41:17George Pickens 41 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)10–14
- Q47:10Chris Boswell 25 Yd Field Goal10–8
- Q411:12Miles Killebrew Safety10–5
- Q23:16Chris Boswell 43 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q212:23Justin Tucker 23 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q16:15Justice Hill 14 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:15Justice Hill 14 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 7 – 0 PIT · BAL 56% → 73% +17BAL 56% → 73%+17 pts
- Q23:16Chris Boswell 43 Yd Field GoalBAL 10 – 3 PIT · PIT 17% → 24% +7PIT 17% → 24%+7 pts
- Q411:12Miles Killebrew SafetyBAL 10 – 5 PIT · PIT 14% → 21% +7PIT 14% → 21%+7 pts
- Q47:10Chris Boswell 25 Yd Field GoalBAL 10 – 8 PIT · PIT 17% → 34% +17PIT 17% → 34%+17 pts
- Q41:17George Pickens 41 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)BAL 10 – 14 PIT · PIT 19% → 96% +77PIT 19% → 96%+77 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ravens 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -2.5
- BAL 60%
- Fair odds
- BAL -130
- PIT +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 22.5 – 20.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | BAL: Lamar Jackson · PIT: Kenny Pickett (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +69 Elo | BAL 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3224.8 | Points scored | 15.525th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3214.5 | Points allowed | 25.023rd of 32 |
| 4th of 32+10.3 | Margin | −9.526th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.25 | Yards per play | 4.5727th of 32 |
| 1st of 323.75 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7024th of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 1–19th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.