Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing15/19, 186 YDS, 2 TD
- Gus EdwardsRushing15 CAR, 48 YDS
- Mark AndrewsReceiving5 REC, 80 YDS, 2 TD
Browns- Dorian Thompson-RobinsonPassing19/36, 121 YDS, 3 INT
- Pierre Strong Jr.Rushing5 CAR, 49 YDS
- David NjokuReceiving6 REC, 46 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:56Mark Andrews 18 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)28–3
- Q20:11Mark Andrews 7 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)21–3
- Q24:18Lamar Jackson 2 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)14–3
- Q12:21Dustin Hopkins 53 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q16:38Lamar Jackson 10 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:38Lamar Jackson 10 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 7 – 0 CLE · BAL 46% → 65% +19BAL 46% → 65%+19 pts
- Q12:21Dustin Hopkins 53 Yd Field GoalBAL 7 – 3 CLE · CLE 34% → 42% +8CLE 34% → 42%+8 pts
- Q24:18Lamar Jackson 2 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 14 – 3 CLE · BAL 60% → 80% +20BAL 60% → 80%+20 pts
- Q20:11Mark Andrews 7 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 21 – 3 CLE · BAL 82% → 94% +12BAL 82% → 94%+12 pts
- Q45:56Mark Andrews 18 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 28 – 3 CLE · BAL >99% → >99% +0BAL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Browns 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -1.5
- CLE 55%
- Fair odds
- CLE -117
- BAL +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 21.0 – 22.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −25 | BAL: Lamar Jackson · CLE: Dorian Thompson-Robinson, usually Deshaun Watson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +32 Elo | CLE 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3223.7 | Points scored | 24.312th of 32 |
| 7th of 3218.3 | Points allowed | 10.71st of 32 |
| 9th of 32+5.3 | Margin | +13.75th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.22 | Yards per play | 5.0015th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.12 | Yards allowed per play | 3.231st of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.